Moscow’s Vital, Necessary Defeat
Moldova – a small, poor country that holds outsized strategic weight - chose decisively to reject Russian influence.
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While hardly a crushing blow, this week’s parliamentary elections in Moldova were a vital, necessary defeat of Russia’s European destabilisation efforts – and a rare moment of real success for grass roots efforts in empowering local voices.
Few outsiders could find Moldova on a map. Yet the stakes could not have been higher. Wedged between Ukraine and Romania, with the sliver of Russian-occupied Transnistria along its eastern border, this small, poor country holds outsized strategic weight.
If it fell to Moscow proxies, the anti-democratic playbook – so freshly updated across the Black Sea in Georgia – would be replayed: capture of independent institutions, “foreign agents” laws to silence civil society and media, systemic corruption, and absorption of energy and other sectors under Russian influence.
Above all, Moldova would serve as a base to pressure the Ukrainian coast, including Odesa, and a staging ground for interference in Romania and the EU. With U.S. support withdrawn this year – estimated at roughly 500 million US dollars – the elections became a key test of the EU’s ability to step up.
Against low expectations before the September 28 vote, Moldova – and Europe – passed the test. The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) of President Maia Sandu won 55 of 101 seats, more than double the Russian bloc’s 26, with three nationalist or Russia-leaning parties taking the remaining 20.
It wasn’t pretty. The government accused Russia of massive spending on vote-buying and propaganda. On a visit earlier this year, I saw the granularity of these tactics – micro-payments to ordinary citizens at the neighbourhood level to spread fear and disinformation.
This time, however, the government was better prepared: disrupting vote-buying, working with social media firms to curb false narratives, and setting up a disinformation office to counter Russian propaganda. European donors also backed independent projects, with IWPR working with Norwegian assistance to support the Independent Countering Disinformation Centre (ICDC), a local hub for grassroots media and community resilience.
Tougher steps were also taken. Two days before the vote, the Central Electoral Commission disqualified two pro-Russian parties for illicit funding and bribery. Meanwhile, EU-based expatriates found ample polling stations, while access for Moldovans in Russia was more limited.
Yet it is past time for the West to play some democratic hardball. As Georgia shows, open systems are vulnerable to Russia’s manipulation – and once lost, are painfully difficult to rebuild.
Much remains to do. Europe must respond generously: streamlining accession, resolving the political Gordian knot tying Moldova’s membership to Ukraine’s, in turn blocked for the moment by Hungary, and delivering on promised energy investments to shield against Russian price coercion.
Democratic consolidation will also require addressing popular discontent with slow reforms and economic pressures. Somehow, Transnistria and Gagauzia, too, need fuller integration into the national project. On my trip to Tiraspol, Moscow’s grip felt oddly half-hearted: Lenin’s towering statue before parliament seemed pitiful not powerful, and a few scattered soldiers looked more idle than menacing. With overstretched commitments from Ukraine to Africa, Russia may simply lack the focus for its full imperial designs – what senior research fellow Natalie Sabanadze of Chatham House calls its “ambition capability gap.” Even Moldova has become a step too far.
Remarkably, although turnout was low, 30 per cent of Transnistrians who voted supported PAS. Perhaps, beyond social media battles, they see reality. On that bitterly cold winter’s day in Tiraspol, Galina, 55, a produce seller, recalled how residents endured the recent energy crisis when Russian gas halted: families huddled around wood stoves, bundled into single rooms, and laid plastic over electric blankets during blackouts.
“Very difficult,” she said, pale green eyes sharpening.
With this parliamentary vote, Moldovans handed Russia a modest but essential defeat – and chose decisively for better days.
This publication has been produced with financial support from Norway. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the Government of Norway.
