Too Late for Syrian Dialogue

Many Syrian activists have denounced the Arab League call for talks as effectively a green light for Assad to attempt to crush will of demonstrators.

Salem Hafez

Salem Hafez
IWPR editor in Iraq

The Arab League this week called for an immediate end to the violence in Syria and talks between the government and the opposition within 15 days.

But their announcement outraged protesters who were hoping for recognition of the Syrian National Council, SNC, as the official representative of the country, and the ejection of Bashar al-Assad’s regime from the league.

It is the second blow in quick succession for the Syrian opposition, after Russia and China vetoed a European-backed United Nations Security Council resolution earlier this month that threatened sanctions against the Syrian regime if it did not immediately halt its military crackdown.

During the Arab League emergency meeting, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC states, some of which have already withdrawn their ambassadors from Damascus, called on the league to remove Syria from the group - but failed to garner the backing of two-thirds of the membership.

This highlights clear differences within the Arab League on how to handle the crisis, with many Arab leaders still worried about their own legitimacy and fear a similar fate to that of Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi.

Instead, the league proposed setting up a committee headed by Qatar to oversee the dialogue between Assad’s government and the SNC.

However, nothing was said about possible consequences for the Syrian regime – which does not recognise the SNC and describes the nationwide protests as the work of “armed terrorists” and “foreign conspirators” – if it fails to end the violence and agree to meet the opposition in Cairo.

Given the Syrian regime’s track record of killing, arresting and torturing opposition leaders at home and intimidating those aboard, it seems unlikely Damascus will choose reconciliation or dialogue with its opponents.

Political activists inside and outside Syria maintain that the window to conduct dialogue with a regime that has killed, tortured and attacked its own citizens, closed long ago.

Hundreds of demonstrations in Syria condemning the Arab League broke out this week, leading to an escalation of regime violence.

And a new regime offensive on Syrian cities left 27 dead – including 21 killed in Homs in a single night – with hundreds more arrested.

The Syrian opposition denounced the Arab League statement as effectively a green light for Assad to attempt to crush the will of the demonstrators.

They were equally critical of Ankara’s recent announcement that it was losing patience with Assad and would grant him two weeks to begin reforms or face serious consequences.

A month on, Ankara is yet to decide on what sort of policy it would adopt over Syria.

After the failure of the Security Council, and now the perceived abandonment by their Arab neighbours, Syrians feel that they have been left with few options.

Meanwhile, a coherent international response over Syria is still missing.

Some members of the SNC – including members of local coordination committees and the Muslim Brotherhood – have made their demands clear; they want a no-fly zone, although they’ve stopped short of asking for foreign troops on the ground.

Activists in Syria have also warned that they would disown any figures that broke from the collective position of the SNC and attempted to hold talks with the Syrian regime.

The seven month-old uprising has resulted in over 3,000 deaths, with thousands more arrested or missing. The country seems ever closer to all-out civil war.

Some say the Syrians have begun to arm themselves, despite the calls from the protest leaders and activists inside the country and in the diaspora to resist violence.

Some activists I spoke to in Aleppo and Hama pondered that the only way forward was to emulate the revolution in Libya and turn a peaceful uprising into an armed one.

They called for the storming and destruction of government and Baath party buildings and direct confrontations with state security forces.

The Syrian Free Army, SFA , a grouping of regime soldiers who’ve defected to the opposition, responded to the Arab League’s call for dialogue by announcing the formation of further brigades and posting videos of attacks against government security forces and state thugs, the shabiha.

It has also begun distributing material with advice on engaging the security forces and announced that one brigade in Aleppo had already confronted regime soldiers there.

Assad may have scoffed at holding dialogue with the opposition, but has failed to crush the movement. The more brutal he becomes, the stronger the will of the protesters.

If the international community fails to establish a unified policy towards Syria, one which focuses on the protection of civilians – such as the creation of a no-fly zone – then the country is heading towards civil war.