Tajik Islamists Hesitate Over Political Direction
Opinions within the leadership of Central Asia’s only parliamentary Muslim party appear divided on how to contest this year’s presidential election.
Tajik Islamists Hesitate Over Political Direction
Opinions within the leadership of Central Asia’s only parliamentary Muslim party appear divided on how to contest this year’s presidential election.
Central Asia's only legal Islamic party has announced that it will field a candidate against incumbent Tajik president Imomali Rahmonov in the November election.
But the party leadership appears undecided about whether to ally itself with the Rahmonov administration or to take a more confrontational stance.
The IRP is one of eight parties planning to take part in the upcoming election – which few people doubt that the incumbent Rahmonov will win. But what sets it apart from the rest is that it is one of only two opposition parties with seats in parliament, and has an openly Muslim identity and a past as a protagonist in the bitter 1992-97 civil war.
The civil war legacy leaves some officials suspicious of the IRP’s real intentions, with allegations that it is cosying up to illegal Islamic groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir.
“We will take part in the upcoming presidential election. Our party has worthy candidates,” party leader Sayed Abdullo Nuri said in a recent interview with local press. However, Nuri was careful not to name possible contenders, saying that doing so at this stage “could be detrimental to their work - and their lives”.
This week the IRP confirmed that it would field a candidate.
In an IWPR interview conducted before this announcement, Nuri’s first deputy - and the man many have tipped as a possible successor - Muhiddin Kabiri said Nuri was right to be reticent about who might stand.
“Tajikistan is not Europe and does not yet have developed democratic traditions,” he explained. “There’s a low level of political culture and a lack of political tolerance in this country.”
The IRP was a driving force in the insurgent force operating out of Afghanistan that fought the government of current president Emomali Rahmonov for five years. After a peace deal concluded in 1997, the IRP was transformed into a legal political party, disarmed its guerrillas and was granted a mandatory quota of government posts.
But in subsequent years it failed to capitalise on its position at the end of the war - partly because voters were suspicious of its Islamic nametag and tended to identify it with specific areas of the country, as the civil war had been fought along regional as well as ideological lines.
But even with just two seats in parliament, the IRP is ahead of all other parties except the governing People’s Democratic Party and the Communists. And it is the only Islamic political force that is even allowed to exist in the five Central Asian republics.
The party appears to avoid seeking overt confrontation with the Rahmonov administration. But it has suffered as part of what appears to be the
government campaign to quietly marginalise the whole of the political opposition. The IRP’s deputy leader Shamsuddin Shamsuddinov was jailed in January 2004, on charges the party alleged were manufactured as a warning to other members.
Despite such setbacks, Nuri – an Islamic scholar active as a dissident even in Soviet times – appears conciliatory towards Rahmonov, the former Communist who was his civil-war adversary. In an interview with the Millat newspaper, Nuri said, “In my opinion, Rahmonov is a man who wants to look after the country in various ways; he wants Tajikistan to become the equal of developed countries. I have been in agreement with his foreign policy, and I have praised him for it on several occasions.”
The IRP leader said his main area of disagreement with the president was over domestic issues. “I’m unhappy with the corruption in Tajikistan,” he said. “Our country does not produce anything of its own and cannot provide for itself - essentially it cannot survive without foreign loans.”
Nuri has hinted that the IRP might even ally itself with Rahmonov’s People’s Democratic Party.
“We cannot separate parties from each other, the time has come when we need to work in the interests of the nation, and not in an atmosphere of revenge and hostility,” Nuri said in the Millat interview.
Kabiri disagrees with the idea that the IRP could ever join forces with the president’s party. “It’s unrealistic. Even as a proposal it can’t become reality,” he told IWPR
A political analyst who asked to remain anonymous said it was possible that these two apparently disparate forces could team up, although he believed it was more likely that the IRP would serve as stalking-horse for Rahmonov to sail through the election.
“The two leaders have a lot in common,” he said. “A political union between the regime and the Islamists is possible not just in the form of a bloc, but also that the latter could put forward a candidate. The IRP will get a small percentage of the votes, but the regime will be able to say that the elections were democratic and took everyone’s interests into account. But that’s only feasible as long as the IRP does not provide any competition to the existing regime.”
Shokirjon Hakimov, deputy leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party, agrees with this view, saying, “The regime has an interest in the IRP taking part in the election. The principle is that they [the voters] will choose the lesser of two evils…. the People’s Democratic Party, while the IRP candidate from the IRP will be doomed.”
In terms of electoral appeal, the IRP still suffers from its association with the civil war and perceived Islamic radicalism. This is a view especially common in urban areas, and such fears can only be fed by accusations made last month by Interior Minister Humdin Sharipov that some IRP members had been found to have links with the banned group Hizb ut-Tahrir.
“The number of followers of this extremist organisation [Hizb ut-Tahrir] is growing,” Sharipov told a press conference in the capital Dushanbe. “Members of Hizb ut-Tahrir are trying to maintain links with all legal and illegal movements in Tajikistan.”
Sharipov went on to speak of “a consolidation of extremist forces and movements”.
IRP leaders have always distanced themselves from Hizb ut-Tahrir, which sprang up in Uzbekistan in the mid-Nineties and spread south from there into Tajikistan. And Kabiri rejects Sharipov’s allegations out of hand – saying the government itself is just as vulnerable to infiltration.
“As an outlawed party, Hizb ut-Tahrir will naturally seek allies, and it has tried to infiltrate its people into various structures including political parties and the government,” he said. "If Hizb ut-Tahrir followers have been successful somewhere, that does not mean they have ties with a particular political party. Following the minister’s logic, any regime can be accused of ties with a prohibited movement. If there have been one or two cases of this, no premature conclusions about the party [IRP] should be drawn.
“Our party denies any cooperation with Hizb ut-Tahrir.”
Kabiri has led efforts by party moderates to overcome suspicions and win acceptance both at home and in the West. Instead of a theocratic state, the IRP talks of economic and social reforms.
Nuri has been ill for some time and the issue of succession is an open secret. He has already suggested he step down, but the party’s ruling councul refused to let him. One anonymous source in the party told IWPR that one possible candidate to replace Nuri is his son Muhammadjon Saidov. According to this source, the Rahmonov administration would be happy with this choice.
However, political analysts have consistently pointed to another strong contender - Kabiri.
The deputy leader himself demurs, telling IWPR that “two years ago, Nuri did indeed raise the possibility of leaving the party. But the party presidium rejected his request to leave, and we have not yet returned to this topic.
“There is no need at the moment - Nuri’s state of health permits him to lead the party.”
Shirin Azizmamadova is a pseudonym for an independent journalist in Dushanbe.
But the party leadership appears undecided about whether to ally itself with the Rahmonov administration or to take a more confrontational stance.
The IRP is one of eight parties planning to take part in the upcoming election – which few people doubt that the incumbent Rahmonov will win. But what sets it apart from the rest is that it is one of only two opposition parties with seats in parliament, and has an openly Muslim identity and a past as a protagonist in the bitter 1992-97 civil war.
The civil war legacy leaves some officials suspicious of the IRP’s real intentions, with allegations that it is cosying up to illegal Islamic groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir.
“We will take part in the upcoming presidential election. Our party has worthy candidates,” party leader Sayed Abdullo Nuri said in a recent interview with local press. However, Nuri was careful not to name possible contenders, saying that doing so at this stage “could be detrimental to their work - and their lives”.
This week the IRP confirmed that it would field a candidate.
In an IWPR interview conducted before this announcement, Nuri’s first deputy - and the man many have tipped as a possible successor - Muhiddin Kabiri said Nuri was right to be reticent about who might stand.
“Tajikistan is not Europe and does not yet have developed democratic traditions,” he explained. “There’s a low level of political culture and a lack of political tolerance in this country.”
The IRP was a driving force in the insurgent force operating out of Afghanistan that fought the government of current president Emomali Rahmonov for five years. After a peace deal concluded in 1997, the IRP was transformed into a legal political party, disarmed its guerrillas and was granted a mandatory quota of government posts.
But in subsequent years it failed to capitalise on its position at the end of the war - partly because voters were suspicious of its Islamic nametag and tended to identify it with specific areas of the country, as the civil war had been fought along regional as well as ideological lines.
But even with just two seats in parliament, the IRP is ahead of all other parties except the governing People’s Democratic Party and the Communists. And it is the only Islamic political force that is even allowed to exist in the five Central Asian republics.
The party appears to avoid seeking overt confrontation with the Rahmonov administration. But it has suffered as part of what appears to be the
government campaign to quietly marginalise the whole of the political opposition. The IRP’s deputy leader Shamsuddin Shamsuddinov was jailed in January 2004, on charges the party alleged were manufactured as a warning to other members.
Despite such setbacks, Nuri – an Islamic scholar active as a dissident even in Soviet times – appears conciliatory towards Rahmonov, the former Communist who was his civil-war adversary. In an interview with the Millat newspaper, Nuri said, “In my opinion, Rahmonov is a man who wants to look after the country in various ways; he wants Tajikistan to become the equal of developed countries. I have been in agreement with his foreign policy, and I have praised him for it on several occasions.”
The IRP leader said his main area of disagreement with the president was over domestic issues. “I’m unhappy with the corruption in Tajikistan,” he said. “Our country does not produce anything of its own and cannot provide for itself - essentially it cannot survive without foreign loans.”
Nuri has hinted that the IRP might even ally itself with Rahmonov’s People’s Democratic Party.
“We cannot separate parties from each other, the time has come when we need to work in the interests of the nation, and not in an atmosphere of revenge and hostility,” Nuri said in the Millat interview.
Kabiri disagrees with the idea that the IRP could ever join forces with the president’s party. “It’s unrealistic. Even as a proposal it can’t become reality,” he told IWPR
A political analyst who asked to remain anonymous said it was possible that these two apparently disparate forces could team up, although he believed it was more likely that the IRP would serve as stalking-horse for Rahmonov to sail through the election.
“The two leaders have a lot in common,” he said. “A political union between the regime and the Islamists is possible not just in the form of a bloc, but also that the latter could put forward a candidate. The IRP will get a small percentage of the votes, but the regime will be able to say that the elections were democratic and took everyone’s interests into account. But that’s only feasible as long as the IRP does not provide any competition to the existing regime.”
Shokirjon Hakimov, deputy leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party, agrees with this view, saying, “The regime has an interest in the IRP taking part in the election. The principle is that they [the voters] will choose the lesser of two evils…. the People’s Democratic Party, while the IRP candidate from the IRP will be doomed.”
In terms of electoral appeal, the IRP still suffers from its association with the civil war and perceived Islamic radicalism. This is a view especially common in urban areas, and such fears can only be fed by accusations made last month by Interior Minister Humdin Sharipov that some IRP members had been found to have links with the banned group Hizb ut-Tahrir.
“The number of followers of this extremist organisation [Hizb ut-Tahrir] is growing,” Sharipov told a press conference in the capital Dushanbe. “Members of Hizb ut-Tahrir are trying to maintain links with all legal and illegal movements in Tajikistan.”
Sharipov went on to speak of “a consolidation of extremist forces and movements”.
IRP leaders have always distanced themselves from Hizb ut-Tahrir, which sprang up in Uzbekistan in the mid-Nineties and spread south from there into Tajikistan. And Kabiri rejects Sharipov’s allegations out of hand – saying the government itself is just as vulnerable to infiltration.
“As an outlawed party, Hizb ut-Tahrir will naturally seek allies, and it has tried to infiltrate its people into various structures including political parties and the government,” he said. "If Hizb ut-Tahrir followers have been successful somewhere, that does not mean they have ties with a particular political party. Following the minister’s logic, any regime can be accused of ties with a prohibited movement. If there have been one or two cases of this, no premature conclusions about the party [IRP] should be drawn.
“Our party denies any cooperation with Hizb ut-Tahrir.”
Kabiri has led efforts by party moderates to overcome suspicions and win acceptance both at home and in the West. Instead of a theocratic state, the IRP talks of economic and social reforms.
Nuri has been ill for some time and the issue of succession is an open secret. He has already suggested he step down, but the party’s ruling councul refused to let him. One anonymous source in the party told IWPR that one possible candidate to replace Nuri is his son Muhammadjon Saidov. According to this source, the Rahmonov administration would be happy with this choice.
However, political analysts have consistently pointed to another strong contender - Kabiri.
The deputy leader himself demurs, telling IWPR that “two years ago, Nuri did indeed raise the possibility of leaving the party. But the party presidium rejected his request to leave, and we have not yet returned to this topic.
“There is no need at the moment - Nuri’s state of health permits him to lead the party.”
Shirin Azizmamadova is a pseudonym for an independent journalist in Dushanbe.
