Iran War Impacts Ukraine

As the military confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran continues to escalate, analysts warn of the far-reaching consequences for the Russian-Ukrainian front.

Although the new conflict has exacerbated the risk of diminishing Western military support for Kyiv - while presenting a significant international distraction from resolving the full-scale invasion, now entering its fifth year - others argue that the turmoil may present Ukraine with fresh opportunities.

Iran’s response to the February 28 US-Israeli strike was to attack Israel and other US allies in the Middle East, including the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to speak with the leaders of all these nations to offer assistance.

“Ukraine is positioning itself as a proactive and valuable partner, one that can help both its American partners and its partners in the Middle East,” said Oleksandr Kraiev, an expert at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council. “With the latter, it’s worth noting, relations have not always been smooth, simply because they previously saw greater prospects and better opportunities in cooperating with the Russians.”

Kyiv is also aiming to take advantage of its hard-won real-life experience of drone warfare. Russia has launched more than 57,000 Iran-designed Shahed drones against Ukraine during the full-scale war, giving Ukrainian specialists a deep understanding of how to counter them.

Zelensky announced that Washington had approached Kyiv for assistance in defence against Iranian drones in the Middle East, and that he had deployed Ukrainian specialists to the region.

Kyiv has also offered partners shipments of its own interceptor drones designed to shoot down Iranian-made UAVs.

Tehran transferred the production technology to Moscow, and in recent years Russia has been manufacturing modified versions of these drones at its own facilities.

“Ukraine can offer a blueprint for building an anti-drone system,” Valerii Romanenko, a leading research fellow at the National Aviation University, told IWPR. “This includes determining how many defensive layers are needed, how to position detection assets and sensors, which systems to deploy – both low-cost and expensive – and how to factor in the local geography and urban layout. For example, how to place acoustic stations on high-rise buildings.

“It also includes effective electronic warfare systems capable of powerful jamming. All of this reduces the effectiveness of enemy strikes.”

When it comes to supplying Ukrainian interceptor drones, one of the proposal’s main advantages is its cost. Using interceptor drones is a cost-effective way to defend against Iranian UAVs. For comparison, a single Patriot missile costs at least three million US dollars, whereas an interceptor drone can be purchased for a few thousand dollars.

A high demand for these air defence systems is another pressing concern.

“Ukraine is dependent on Patriot ammunition supplies. Right now, the US, Israel and Arab countries are all actively using these systems,” Romanenko said. “The US leadership might declare this a ‘force majeure’ and direct all munitions to the combat zone for American armed forces.”

Romanenko warned that the delivery of other air defence munitions to Ukraine could also be at risk.

“Like Ukraine, several countries in the Middle East operate NASAMS systems which also use American missiles. Their air forces are now using these missiles to shoot down the same types of drones that Ukraine uses,” he said.

Postponed Talks

Officials in Kyiv have also expressed concern that Ukraine risks becoming a secondary issue in international politics as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies.

Trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the US aimed at ending the war had been scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, in early March.

They now seem to have been postponed indefinitely, despite suggestions by Zelensky that talks be relocated to alternative venues such as Switzerland or Turkey.

“The current US-Israeli operation has effectively suspended any negotiations moderated by the US as Washington simply lacks the bandwidth to manage them,” said Kraiev. “For this reason, negotiations are off the table for now.”

He argued that future US engagement in Ukraine would hinge on the perceived success of the war.

“If the operation against Iran is sufficiently successful, the US will be riding high. They will feel empowered and justified in resolving other international issues more forcefully,” Kraiev continued. “Therefore, I believe they will become more assertive in this area as well. Ukraine should do everything possible to ensure this assertiveness is directed at weakening Russia, rather than at pushing Ukraine into a peace deal at any cost.”

US President Donald Trump described a March 9 phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine as a “very good conversation,” adding that Putin “wants to be helpful” with the Iran conflict.

Ihor Semyvolos, Director of the Ukrainian Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, said that the potential for a political bargain should not be underestimated.

“If the war drags on, Moscow could offer Washington its assistance in containing Iran and stabilising the situation in exchange for major concessions on Ukraine,” he said. “For now, I am sceptical of such a scenario, but things could change quickly.”

“A great deal now depends on the duration and outcome of the hostilities; only then will the consequences for Ukraine become clear,” Semyvolos continued. “If the regime falls, it would be a serious geopolitical blow to Russia - a strategic defeat. And of course, this is something Ukraine and its leadership view positively. The regime’s collapse would also give Ukraine significant advantages, including in its cooperation with a future government.”

There may also be some immediate military implications. Tehran and Moscow are firm allies and in recent years have cooperated closely in the defence sector, signing a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in January 2025. They have also actively traded weapons and technology.

David Sharp, an Israeli military analyst, noted that Iran had provided Russia with a large shipment of Soviet-calibre artillery shells from stockpiles as well as military gear. In return, Russia sent armoured vehicles, attack helicopters, portable anti-aircraft missile systems and much more. The total value of military contracts between the two countries is estimated to be over four billion US dollars, he continued, adding, “De facto, Iranian weapons are killing Ukrainians every day.”

This meant that Russia could also face military repercussions from the Iran war.

“Iran is taking heavy hits and could be taken out of the game as a military and economic partner for Russia,” Sharp explained. “It might turn out that Iran simply has nothing left to supply to Russia or will be too preoccupied to do so. A lack of funds could also prevent it from buying anything from Russia. This is a major advantage for Ukraine.”

Another factor directly impacting the war in Ukraine is the price of oil.

“Following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, energy prices have surged, which could provide Russia with a significant financial resource to sustain its war effort,” Semyvolos said.

On March 10, global oil prices surpassed the 100 dollar per barrel mark for the first time since 2022. However, Kraiev argued that this did not automatically mean Russia would reaping windfall profits.

“I see a great deal of speculation that the Russians will start profiting from the rise in oil and natural gas prices,” Kraiev said. “I have my doubts, because they are in a so-called ‘single-buyer trap’. China is the primary purchaser of Russian oil, gas and other natural resources, giving Russia its only significant access to international markets. In this context, I believe China will dictate the price for Russia’s energy resources, just as it is doing now.”

Locations Ukraine

Topics Conflict, Diplomacy, Crisis