Serbia Facing Early Ballot

Serbia's scandal-ridden government may be numbered, as several members of the ruling coalition are talking to the opposition about pressing for early parliamentary elections.

Four of the smaller parties comprising the governing Democratic Opposition of Serbia, DOS, coalition have accepted an invitation from Miroljub Labus, leader of the reformist G17 Plus party, to discuss the possibility of bringing forward elections scheduled for 2004.

G17 Plus walked out of government two months ago and is now its most vocal opponent, seeing an early ballot as the only way to bring order to the turbulent Serbian political scene.

While some parties' willingness to take part in discussions does not automatically mean that the poll will be brought forward, it is a very strong signal that this may be inevitable.

So far, the Serbian government - which is dominated by the slain premier Zoran Djindjic's Democratic Party, DS - has successfully managed to preserve its majority in parliament, despite a series of scandals and falling public support.

DS has been relying on loyalty of those minor parties within the ruling coalition that would not welcome the prospect of an early ballot, as the five per cent threshold needed to gain seats in parliament is way beyond their reach.

In return for their loyalty, the leaders of these smaller parties have been granted a disproportionately important influence in the ruling coalition.

The government has also managed to win over some deputies whose parties had turned their backs on Premier Zoran Zivkovic's cabinet, as the Serbian constitutional court ruled last spring that members of parliament could join other parties without losing their seats.

Since the ruling, at least ten deputies from the anti-government bloc have switched sides and joined DOS member parties or formed new minority groups supporting the administration.

But the government's parliamentary majority is now under threat, as the Social Democratic Party, SDP; the Civil Alliance of Serbia, GSS; the Sandzak Democratic Party and Vojvodina's Reformists are willing to discuss the possibility of early general elections with G17 Plus.

Apparently, these ruling coalition parties believe they risk being tarnished by their continued association with the scandal-hit DS. Other members of government also seemingly believe they might be better off allying with G 17 Plus or the other main opposition group the Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS.

The ruling coalition is at present racked by infighting and frictions. In the past two months, under the pressure of recent scandalous affairs, two cabinet members, the deputy prime minister, Rodoljub Sabic, and the minister of health, Tomislav Milosavljevic, have quit.

In the most recent scandal, which broke on September 3, G17 Plus alleged there were serious voting irregularities at a July 22 assembly session, when deputies dismissed popular National Bank of Serbia governor Mladjan Dinkic - the party's vice president.

At a press conference, G17 Plus presented video footage suggesting that one of the voters, DS deputy Neda Arneric, had not attended the session.

These allegations - which have been vehemently denied by officials - have put into question earlier parliamentary ballots.

While Arneric refused to confirm or deny her attendance at the session, the DS has insisted that she was there.

The international community, meanwhile, appears to be losing patience with the current government.

Brussels and Washington have been strongly backing the Zivkovic's cabinet, but this has been predicated on it continuing to guarantee stability and pushing through reforms.

While there has not a been any public sign of a change in policy, growing sections of the international community seem to be sympathising with G17 Plus, which is a staunch advocate of long-delayed reforms.

As a result of its ongoing problems, popular support for the government has dropped to its lowest level since its election in early 2001 - hovering between 15 and 20 per cent. Indeed, around two-thirds of the reformist minded voters are now in favour of an early parliamentary ballot.

Public opinion analyst Srdjan Bogosavljevic has likened the government's current situation to the final year of the Slobodan Milosevic's regime. "This high level of discontent presents an ideal opportunity [for the opposition to] bear down on a government which has found itself in a very difficult position," he said.

Political analyst Slobodan Antonic believes that early elections are inevitable, as "the erosion of the government's power is much more rapid than the ruling DOS coalition even dares to assume".

Zeljko Cvijanovic is a regular IWPR contributor in Belgrade.