Serbia: Extradition Deadline 'Extended'

The next few days could prove to be the most dramatic in Serbia since the toppling of Slobodan Milosevic, as the battle over whether to extradite war crimes suspects reaches its peak.

If the transfers do not happen, American financial aid and political support for Belgrade will be suspended and the country will once again sink into isolation.

The US deadline for the extraditions expired on Monday, but American secretary of state Colin Powell has postponed his final judgement on the matter until the next session of Congress.

In doing so, he has given the Belgrade leadership a crucial few extra days to deliver.

Some within the Serbian governing coalition, the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, DOS, are counting on the extraditions taking place by Monday April 8.

While it's widely understood that the Americans want the transfer of 21 war crimes suspects to the tribunal in exchange for financial aid and continued political support, DOS sources believe that they could satisfy Washington so long as they partly fulfill two key demands.

Firstly, the extradition of a "priority" group: former Republika Srpska army commander General Ratko Mladic; Milosevic's three closest associates, Nikola Sainovic, Vlajko Stoiljkovic and General Dragoljub Ojdanic; and former Yugoslav People's Army chiefs accused of war crimes in Vukovar in 1991, Colonel Veselin Sljivancanin, General Mile Mrksic and Captain Miroslav Radic.

Secondly, allowing Hague investigators full and unconditional access to all relevant Yugoslav archives and witnesses.

However, three days before the Serbian authorities hope to extradite the key war crimes suspects, things are not looking good.

Politicians are very much divided on this issue. Djindjic supports extraditions in exchange for financial aid, while his rival Yugoslav president Vojislav Kostunica continues to hold an anti-Hague stance.

Kostunica claims he is not against cooperation with The Hague, even though he told Radio Television Serbia, RTS, last Thursday that the court "makes his stomach churn".

He insists that federal legislation on cooperation with The Hague has to be adopted before extraditions can take place.

Yet a bill that would allow this has been obstructed and rejected repeatedly by the Yugoslav parliament for a year and its adoption has already failed twice, in June last year, and in March this year.

If this isn't adopted, Djindjic might have to resort to a constitutionally-controversial decree on cooperation with tribunal his government passed in order to send Milosevic to The Hague.

Since Kostunica opposes the idea of extraditions without a law, Djindjic fears he will be tarred "a traitor" by elements within Serbian society, if he goes ahead with the latter option.

And what makes Djindijic even more disinclined to act unilaterally is the fact that federal elections are nearing and the campaign is effectively underway.

"I was a spy and a traitor for ten years," Djindjic told Radio B92 on April 3, referring to accusations Milosevic leveled against him. "Now I am a traitor again because I am trying to do something for this people."

A week earlier he told Serbian state television, "The Yugoslav president has been waging an active campaign against this (extraditions) for a year and a half now believing that the republican government would do the dirty work and that he and his party would score patriotic points at someone else's expense."

Some analysts in Belgrade believe Djindjic is right to claim that Kostunica is not so much against The Hague as he is against the idea of sharing the responsibility, because that would damage his image as a patriot which he is counting on preserving in order to do well in forthcoming elections.

Djindjic's tactics of stalling on use of his decree appears to be a careful move to force Kostunica to compromise because if he does nothing he could be blamed for the financial collapse of the country.

And it might be working. This Wednesday, just days after arguing the idea of the tribunal made him sick, Kostunica told the weekly Reporter that he had "in a way, digested" it.

And a pacifying initiative of Dragoljub Micunovic, speaker of the Yugoslav parliament, to bring forward the disputed bill allowing the extraditions has received backing from Kostunica as well as Djindjic.

"This is something (the law) that can be done in two-three days, in an emergency procedure. I see no difficulties here," Kostunica told a press conference on Thursday.

Arrests based on such legislation would have many advantages: those close to the wanted men, Sainovic, Stojiljkovic and Ojdanic, have hinted to the Belgrade media that they would be willing to voluntarily surrender under the terms of the law.

Another advantage is that it would also apply to the former JNA officers wanted for war crimes at Vukovar, since the existing Serbian government decree does not explicitly determine whether the arrest of army officers falls under the jurisdiction of the police.

A Serbian interior ministry, MUP, officer told IWPR Thursday that Stojiljkovic and Sainovic have already been placed under some kind of house arrest, as police are monitoring their Belgrade flats day and night awaiting orders for their arrest.

If the bill is finally passed, this will invariably happen. If it fails, Djindjic will thus be left to decide whether to act on his own. Aware of the political risks and the potential rifts within the police, it will not be an easy decision.

Arrests based on the government decree would only aggravate the political crisis in Serbia - and Kostunica, already more popular with the people than Djindjic, would soar ahead of his rival in the opinion polls.

If the bill is not adopted, and Djindjic refuses to move on the extradition, it would lead to a increasingly bitter fight between the two men - as well as the almost certain end of American aid and political support.

The result would be an end to economic and political reforms - Serbia would be brought to the brink of chaos.

What is comforting is that, for now, most people believe that this is the least likely outcome.

Zeljko Cvijanovic is editor-in-chief of the Belgrade weekly Blic News.