Prospects for Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace
How the US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is playing out in the South Caucasus.
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Welcome to IWPR’s Frontline Update, your go-to source to hear from journalists and local voices at the front lines of conflict.
THE BIG PICTURE
The US-brokered August 2025 peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan marked a historic step toward stabilising the South Caucasus after decades of conflict.
The agreement centres strategic regional and economic partnerships as a mechanism to resolve long-standing tensions - but can peace endure when the societies of neighbouring countries remain hostile toward one another?
VOICES FROM THE FRONTLINE
“Despite its geopolitical and diplomatic significance, the agreement leaves major questions unanswered – not least the glaring absence of a human element to the process,” wrote Caucasus regional director Beka Bajelidze in a piece for IWPR this week.
Borders remain closed, trade ties are absent, and person-to-person contact between Armenians and Azerbaijanis virtually non-existent.
Mehriban Rahimli, a consultant on Azerbaijan for the US German Marshall Fund, noted that “both populations are tired of decades long animosity”.
However, Yerevan-based human rights expert Gulnara Shahinian told IWPR that genuine public buy-in was essential.
“So far, the peace deal has primarily functioned at the level of governments and international mediators, while people-to-people relations remain marked by deep wounds, mistrust, and trauma from years of conflict and violence,” she said.
WHY IT MATTERS
The deal reflects shifting power balances in the South Caucasus, not least a far more muscular US approach that has significantly marginalised Russia. The strategic shift could lead to improved regional cooperations with far-reaching consequences.
Yet the process remains fragile, and without addressing reconciliation through education, culture or economic exchange, the deal risks entrenching hostility rather than healing it.
THE BOTTOM LINE
IWPR has worked in the South Caucasus since our founding in the early-90s, supporting local voices and strengthening civil society to help drive informed change.
Our work underlines the need for a human dimension in the negotiation process as a foundation for lasting peace. Grassroots involvement is key to ending conflict and cementing long-last reconciliation and stability.
“Formal agreements can help by halting violence, opening borders, and creating frameworks for cooperation,” Shahinian said, “but they do not automatically heal divisions within societies.”
