Dam Dispute Heats Up Between Uzbeks, Tajiks

Continuing differences between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over the latter’s construction of a giant hydroelectric dam are playing out at the political level, although fundamentally the issue is an economic one and could be resolved through compromise, NBCentral Asia experts say.



In a February 19 article, the state-run Pravda Vostoka newspaper in Uzbekistan reiterated the country’s official position that before work on the Roghun energy scheme is completed, its environmental impact on the region must be the subject of an independent survey conducted under international auspices. The article said the design plans for the dam, drawn up in the Soviet period, were out-of-date and in need of revision.



Work on the dam, reservoir and power plant was launched in 1976, when the Central Asian republics were part of a single state, the Soviet Union. Frozen due to lack of funding after Tajikistan became independent, the scheme was revitalised in 2007 and work on the 2.5 billion US dollar project is now continuing.



The dam will be the world’s highest at 335 metres, and sits across the river Vakhsh in southern Tajikistan, a major tributary of the Amu Darya, one of the two great waterways of Central Asia. Water from the reservoir will give Tajikistan a plentiful, uninterrupted and cheap source of electricity, and even a surplus which it can export to Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan.



Uzbekistan, for which the Amu Darya is an important source of irrigation, fear the Roghun dam will allow Tajikistan to switch the water on and off at will. Tajikistan’s hydroelectricity needs would point to a major release of water during the cold winter months, whereas the Uzbeks need irrigation during spring and summer; a shortage in those seasons could jeopardise the cotton crop, their key export.



The Uzbeks have also raised concerns about the environmental effects of changing water flows and the nightmare scenario where the dam ruptured in this area of high seismic activity.



Tashkent has similar concerns about two linked dam schemes at Kambarata in Kyrgyzstan.



“Uzbekistan’s relations with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are extremely strained,” said Tashpulat Yoldashev, an Uzbek political analyst based in the United States.



In early February, Uzbek prime minister Shavqat Mirzioev warned his Tajik counterpart Akil Akilov “not to hurry” work on Roghun. In response, the Tajik prime minister said he was ready to meet Uzbek officials to discuss all outstanding matters. So far, the Uzbeks have not replied.



The long-running dispute escalated in January 2009, when during a visit to Uzbekistan, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev appeared to side with the Uzbek position on Tajik and Kyrgyz hydroelectric schemes. Later, the World Bank also supported the idea of a regional study of environmental impacts.



Although official positions remain far apart, NBCentral Asia commentators say the Uzbeks and Tajiks could, if they wanted, come to terms on a mutually advantageous economic partnership. They could, for example, share costs, agree ways of exchanging water for fuel, and discuss joint use stewardship of the region’s natural resources.



“They should sit down at the negotiating table and discuss the Roghun issue from an economic standpoint,” said Nuriddin Karshiboyev, who chairs the Tajik National Association of Independent Media in Dushanbe.



Dilmurad Kholmatov, an economist in Uzbekistan, shares this vision, saying, “In order to repair relations, they need joint projects, common financial interests, and opportunities for Tashkent to be involved in constructing other Tajik hydroelectricity schemes”.



However, this presupposes that both governments would be prepared to curb their political ambitions.



Parviz Mullojonov, a political analyst in Dushanbe, says the Uzbek authorities are worried that possession of the Roghun reservoir could allow the Tajiks to use control of the water flow to counter the political pressure from Tashkent.



“Uzbekistan might put up with Roghun if it’s given international guarantees that the dam won’t be used as an instrument of political pressure,” he said. “But there needs to be a third party to help reach consensus”.



If areas of common economic interest are not found, the confrontation is likely to continue, said Yoldashev.



“Uzbekistan could bar Tajik trains from using its railways, block freight consisting of equipment and materials for the Roghun dam, and reduce gas supplies,” he said. “Its neighbours might react by using their dams to full capacity, significantly reducing flows during the growing season and seriously damaging the agricultural sector along the lower reaches of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.”



(NBCA is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service has resumed, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)