Croatia: HDZ Makes Astonishing U-turn

The newly appointed prime minister Ivo Sanader has taken a series of spectacular steps to seemingly change the hard-line nationalist image of his Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, party, since its victory in elections last month.

Sanader caused a real sensation on January 7, when he appeared in the company of his wife, parliamentary speaker Vladimir Seks, a once notorious nationalist, and another two of his ministers at the Serbian Orthodox Christmas reception organised in Zagreb by the Serb National Council, SNV.

The Croatian public were thrown into a state of shock when Sanader wished a merry Christmas to his Orthodox Serb hosts, in the traditional Serb way, with the greeting, “Christ is born”.

This was the latest in a series of unexpectedly moderate moves by the leader of a political party, founded by late Franjo Tudjman, which once espoused extremist, hard-line nationalist policies.

It has led many analysts to believe that Sanader’s promises about the HDZ’s transformation into a new, modern party should be regarded as credible declarations.

However, this does not necessarily mean that HDZ rule will be problem-free or that Sanader may be fully trusted to implement the reforms that he’s promised and usher Croatia into the European Union by 2007, as planned by his predecessor, former Socialist prime minister Ivica Racan.

The most dramatic change in HDZ policy is its approach to ethnic minorities, particularly Serb and Italian communities.

Serb-Croat relations have been fraught with difficulties ever since the 1991 war when the Serbian minority, under the influence of Slobodan Milosevic, set up an autonomous province on Croatian territory.

The conflict dragged on for several years and finally came to an end when the Croatian army overran the entity in August 1995, triggering the exodus of over 200,000 local Serbs.

Ever since, repatriation of refugees has been painstakingly slow while there have been many difficulties and obstacles encountered by those who dared return to their homes.

In the course of his election campaign, Sanader surprised the general public by calling on uprooted Serbs who have yet to return to their homes to do so, assuring them that they would be permitted to reclaim their homes.

The HDZ leader additionally offered the minority a ministerial post, should the party be elected. The offer was rejected as the Serbs have made support for his government conditional on refugee repatriation and property restitution.

In his Orthodox Christmas address to the Serbs, Sanader sought to reassure the minority that his gesture was genuine, “I would like to show on this occasion that the manner in which we started off our term of office truly represents what we really think.”

Seks, notorious for his anti-Serb public statements during the Tudjman era, went on to say, “Bitter experiences, times of misunderstandings and misconceptions should be left buried in the past. Hopefully, we have all learnt the lessons about tolerance and respect for human and minority rights.”

“These are very encouraging signs,” said Vojislav Stanimirovic, one of three Serb deputies in the Croatian parliament and president of the Independent Democratic Serbian Party, SDSS, told IWPR. “Now the most important thing would be to implement this new positive policy at local level. If this indeed happens, then we may talk of considerable progress in inter-ethnic relations in Croatia.”

SNV head Milorad Pupovac told the Vecernji List newspaper on January 9 that he was optimistic about the new Sanader regime. He said mutual trust between it and his community had grown markedly in the course of recent discussions over the government’s refugee-return and housing-reconstruction programmes.

Before his extraordinary attendance at the Serbian Christmas reception, Sanader visited Istria, the most developed Croatian region, traditionally hostile towards the HDZ.

Istria is home to many members of the Italian ethnic minority in Croatia and Sanader addressed them in their language, voicing his strong support for further development of the region and its unique character. Tudjman had long waged a bitter war with the province, endeavouring to make the Italian minority “more Croat”.

Just prior to his Istrian visit, Sanader reacted calmly to the victory of extreme nationalists in Serbia’s December 28 parliamentary election, despite the leader of the victorious Serbian Radical Party, Tomislav Nikolic threatening to break off diplomatic relations with Croatia and extend Serbia’s border with Croatia deep into Croatian territory. In the past, nationalists here would almost certainly have regarded this as an aggressive provocation and responded in kind.

“Regardless of which political force is in power in Serbia, Croatia wants normalisation of bilateral relations,” said Sanader, stressing that Zagreb would not interfere with the internal affairs of a neighbouring state.

Since the HDZ-led government was formally constituted on December 23, the new premier has reiterated on several occasions his regime’s willingness to fully cooperate with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague - a key prerequisite for the European Union membership - in marked contrast to Zagreb’s previous foot-dragging over extraditions.

Sanader said that cooperation was a legal issue not a political one, which many nationalists have previously argued to justify their opposition to the process. The premier said that Croatia has passed legislation on working with the tribunal and, as he was a staunch advocate of the rule of law, he was not prepared to violate any of its provisions. This has been interpreted by analysts as Sanader’s apparent readiness to hand over without hesitation all war crimes suspects.

Sources close to his cabinet say that the premier has already made a deal with all potential war crimes suspects about their voluntary surrender. Indeed, press reports in Zagreb over the last few days have suggested that the government has received several Hague indictments.

Racan, who represented the moderate left in Croatia, could only have dreamt of adopting this sort of policy towards the Hague court, commented a close associate of the former prime minister who preferred to remain anonymous.

“Racan couldn’t have mustered enough courage to take such bold steps and he constantly kept an eye on the right-wing political parties, fearing their tempestuous reactions, “ said the associate. “Sanader got rid of the most extreme right-wingers in his party.”

The HDZ’s apparently remarkable turnaround doesn’t however mean that the party’s term in office will run smoothly or that the reforms Sanader has promised will be implemented, analysts say.

This, they say, will all depend on whether he manages to raise living standards, reduce unemployment and generally revive the economy. In his first month in office, he hasn’t exactly inspired confidence in this regard.

Plans to cut VAT from 22 to 20 per cent have been postponed until next year. A promise to downsize state departments to increase efficiency has come to naught. Ministries have been reduced from 20 to 14, but the post of state secretary - whose powers are almost equal to that of a minister - has been introduced. Twenty of these new positions have been created, increasing the level of bureaucracy.

“Sanader now does the things which cost him nothing like wishing a merry Christmas to the Serbs and addressing ethnic Italians in their native language,” said one analyst. “It’ll be totally different when he tackles the problems with considerable price tags attached to them, like paying off foreign debt, reducing taxation and improving social benefits which he has promised to the people. Then we will see what his true strengths are.”

Drago Hedl is a regular IWPR contributor in Croatia.