Russia’s Widening Provocation to European Stability
30 November 2021
IWPR's Frontline Updates – unique insights from our network of local reporters and updates from our programmes.
Moscow has been testing Western defences and resolve for years. From poisonings on the streets of British cities, to disinformation campaigns undermining elections to the seizure of Crimea, Russian aggression has been consistent.
Anthony Borden
IWPR FOUNDER & EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Now comes a potentially new phase, what may be an extending strategy across a sweep of border regions to challenge Western focus and seek tactical, and perhaps territorial, gains. Driven both by Russia directly and through allies – who could only be acting with Moscow's consent if not encouragement – this represents an important escalation.
From Minsk, President Alexander Lukashenko drives a policy of ushering refugees into Europe across the Belarusian border. From Banja Luka, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik threatens to withdraw from Bosnian institutions, pressing the Dayton Agreement to breaking point. In Kyiv, as Russian troops mobilise by the Ukrainian border, President Volodymyr Zelensky warns about the potential for an imminent invasion. Meantime, instability in Nagorny Karabakh highlights Russia’s role as peacekeeper there, and its increasing influence in the Caucasus at the expense of the West.
For a Western alliance distracted by the pandemic, embittered by continuing Brexit fallout, reeling from the Taleban takeover in Afghanistan and not fully recovered from tensions during the Trump presidency, any one of these crises would be difficult to manage. Coming all at once – and with Asia-Pacific tensions already in focus – they represent a serious provocation against European stability.
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