Abkhazia’s Next Challenge
The presidential elections in Abkhazia reveal Russia's regional intentions.
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Welcome to IWPR’s Frontline Update, your go-to source to hear from journalists and local voices at the front lines of conflict.
THE BIG PICTURE
On February 15, Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia will go to the polls to vote for a new de facto president.
The snap elections follow mass protests against a new law that would have made it far easier for Russians to buy land in the territory - highlighting local fears over the further entrenchment of Moscow’s already huge influence.
VOICES FROM THE FRONTLINE
Although Abkhazia, like Georgia’s other breakaway region of South Ossetia, has long been reliant on Russian subsidies, successive local administrations have insisted that land can only be sold to de facto citizens.
As IWPR Caucasus regional director Beka Bajelidze writes this week, “even in a tiny territory effectively controlled by the Russian military and pro-Moscow ruling elites, this [law] proved a step too far…Abkhazians, who despite their near-total reliance on Russia’s support, still treasure the perception of independence”.
Ahead of the snap election, he noted how Sergei Kiriyenko, Russia’s new envoy to Abkhazia had promised huge investment deals in areas including health, vital infrastructure and energy.
Bajelidze continued, “All these sweeteners outline Russia’s renewed, complex campaign of actions towards strategically important Black Sea territories, intended to influence Abkhaz people and make them more receptive to Russia’s earlier investment deal.”
WHY IT MATTERS
Abkhazia broke away from Georgia following the end of a civil war in 1993, although it is only recognised by a handful of states including Russia. Moscow’s overpowering influence, with several thousand Russian troops permanently stationed there.
“Russia’s broader strategy in Abkhazia remains reminiscent of the one it uses in Ukraine’s occupied territories, just as its actions in Ukraine have drawn from methods first tested in Georgia’s occupied regions,” Bajelidze concluded. Russia’s actions in this tiny territory can provide key insight into its wider geopolitical tactics, especially as the regional dynamic is expected to shift following US-mediated Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
THE BOTTOM LINE
IWPR has worked in the South Caucasus for nearly three decades, supporting local voices to build democracy and human rights.
In this region as elsewhere, informed communities have the power to build stability and resilience to hostile powers that aim to exploit and disrupt their societies.
