Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations

Analysts in Tajikistan are viewing the recent warming of relations with Tashkent as a sign that Uzbekistan is becoming more flexible and pragmatic in dealing with long-disputed issues.



The latest sign of improved ties came on March 5, when the heads of the Uzbek and Tajik national airlines announced that flights between the two capitals would resume after a 17-year break.



The move came a few days after the Uzbeks restored supplies of electricity, both their own and from Turkmenistan. The Tajiks buy Turkmen electricity which reaches them through the Uzbek national grid, but this was halted in early January, for what Tashkent said was technical reasons.



The resumption in power supplies came as a welcome relief in Tajikistan, where blackouts have left large parts of the country with only a few hours of electricity a day, and some remoter areas plunged into total darkness.



Analysts believe both moves reflect a change in Uzbekistan’s view of its smaller neighbour, and they are cautiously optimistic that the often difficult relationship between the states is at last going to improve.



The first sign of change came at a February 18 meeting of a joint commission on trade and economic ties. The very fact that the Uzbeks agreed that it could take place in the Tajik capital for the first time since 2002 was seen as a breakthrough.



The meeting resulted in a preliminary agreement being signed on demarcating the long frontier between the two states. The border has frequently been the focus for tensions – the Uzbeks laid mines along parts of it in 1999-2000 after accusing the Tajiks of failing to prevent incursions by Islamic militants.



Tighter border controls imposed by the Uzbeks, including a new visa requirement from 2000 onwards, constricted trade and travel opportunities for people in Tajikistan, which otherwise only has land routes to the outside world via Kyrgyzstan, China along a remote high-altitude border stretch, and unstable Afghanistan.



IWPR understands that the inter-governmental - commission also managed to agree a partial solution to the vexed question of shared water resources.



The Uzbeks frequently accuse Tajikistan of filling up reservoirs on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers in order to generate hydroelectricity over the winter, depriving them of irrigation water which they need in spring and summer. They make the same allegation against Kyrgyzstan, where the Syr Darya has its headwaters.



Officials agreed that the reservoir which feeds the Kayrakkum hydroelectric plant on the Tajik section of the Syr Darya would be allowed to fill up until the end of May, and the water would then be gradually released downstream to give Uzbekistan the water it needs for its agricultural sector.



Since independence in 1991, the Central Asian states have found it hard to agree a common plan to share water equitably. Downstream states like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan feel their mountainous neighbours Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan ignore their agricultural needs and hoard the waters of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya over the warm months.



The Tajiks and Kyrgyz, for their part, believe that they are blackmailed into letting the water flow so that they have none left to generate hydropower for themselves over the cold winter. They are also unhappy at providing the water free of charge, whereas their wealthier neighbours charge them market rates for oil and gas imports to fill the energy gap.



Plans to build new hydroelectric stations in Tajikistan, and also Kyrgyzstan, have exacerbated the debate. Uzbekistan has been a strong opponent of additional dams and reservoirs, arguing that these would only make the water shortage worse.



When Uzbekistan’s Islam Karimov and Turkmen president Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov met recently, they presented a new common front in setting out objections to hydropower projects launched unilaterally by their neighbours.



At the concluding press conference on February 25, Karimov spoke of a need to take into account the views of all the states that share the Amu Darya and Syr Darya when one country decides to build a hydroelectric power station, and suggested that the United Nations oversee independent studies into the environmental and other impacts that such schemes would have on the wider region.



At the same time, some analysts in Tajikistan were optimistic about the way Karimov framed his remarks, which they said indicated a possible move away from the previous Uzbek stance of unreserved obstructionism.



For instance, Karimov noted that “we are not against building hydroelectric plants as long as this is in the interests not only of two countries [Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan], but of all the states and peoples in the region”. This suggested that Uzbekistan might be prepared to cooperate with such schemes, or at least not try to block them, if the conditions were right.



Several hydroelectricity projects in Tajikistan are under construction – Sangtuda-1, financed by Russia, is nearing completion, the Iranians are working on Sangtuda-2, and the Tajiks are currently working on the giant Rogun dam themselves.



At the press conference, Karimov seemed to reach out to other Central Asian leaders, saying people in the region had always been able to resolve their differences by themselves.



Rashidghani Abdullo, a Tajik political analyst, said the Uzbek leader was displaying a new pragmatism.



Since several hydropower schemes were already on their way to completion, he said, the Uzbeks may have concluded that the policy of “vehement opposition… hasn’t been a success”.



“For the first time in many years, President Islam Karimov has outlined the possibility of moving away from his harsh stance on hydropower projects,” he said. “It follows that Tajikistan should support this change.”



Rahmon Tagaev, a senior researcher with the Institute for Strategic Studies in Dushanbe, also welcomed the signs of change.



“The fact that the Uzbeks have restored electricity supplies reflects the first [sign of] agreement by Karimov to improve the relationship,” he added.



A Dushanbe-based economist, who asked to remain anonymous, said he believed Uzbekistan was trying to sort out water issues ahead of the growing season and was prepared to make concessions to achieve this.



“It does look as though relations are shifting over to a more civilised framework, based on market economics,” he said.



Lola Olimova is IWPR’s editor in Tajikistan. Daler Gufronov is an Asia-Plus correspondent in Dushanbe.