Tashkent Seeks Closer Ties with Astana

Uzbek president Islam Karimov may prove a more tractable negotiating partner than usual during his September 4 visit to the Kazak capital, as Tashkent tries to break out of its political and economic isolation, say analysts.



Kazakstan and Uzbekistan have long been seen as rivals for primacy in Central Asia, with each choosing a very different path towards this goal.



Uzbekistan’s policy of self-sufficiency has led to economic crisis and isolation, whereas Kazakstan has proved more successful, and now wants to join the ranks of the 50 most developed countries in the world.



The political isolation of Uzbekistan, resulting from the cooling of relations with the West in general and the United States in particular, has forced Tashkent to move closer to Russia, and therefore also to Kazakstan. Uzbekistan is now taking a much more active role in post-Soviet groupings led by Moscow – the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union – going so far as to agree to liberalise its restrictive trade regulations with its partners in this latter bloc.



Analysts note that Uzbekistan is particularly dependent on Kazakstan. Following the joint demarcation of borders and the resolution of almost all the border issues which used to cloud Uzbek-Kazak relations periodically, Tashkent has lost whatever advantage it once had when negotiating on issues as diverse as transportation and trade. Instead, it finds itself tied more than ever to Kazakstan, its main geographical connection with the rest of the world.



In spite of the monopoly it holds on gas supplies to southern Kazakstan, Uzbekistan needs Astana’s help to get its gas to Russia and China. And Kazakstan has already taken steps to cut its dependence on Uzbek gas by developing the Amangeldy gas field in the Zhambyl region.



For the present, Kazakstan depends on Uzbekistan to allow the transit of water resources from Kyrgyzstan. But it has recently had some success in negotiations with Bishkek, and may now ask Kyrgyzstan directly to regulate the flow of water from reservoirs in such a way as to benefit Kazak consumers.



Analysts say Uzbekistan is gradually moving away from its policy of hard-line opposition to its neighbours. It appears that Karimov’s visit to Kazakstan will reveal a growing awareness that economic isolationism is no longer in Tashkent’s best interests.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)