Palestine: European Recognition Without Results
The Europeans already have the tools to sanction Israel for violations, but still refrain from taking meaningful action.
Also see
Kosovo and Palestine: Diverging Self-Determination
Though united by aspirations for independence, they ended up in opposite geopolitical camps.
Earlier this year, the EU, Israel’s main trade partner, concluded that the Jewish state was violating Article 2 of its bilateral Association Agreement, which requires both sides to comply with human rights and democratic principles.
The Europeans have a well-filled toolbox to sanction Israel for these violations, but measures including suggested trade sanctions were not imposed in absence of a majority among members.
This is an illustration of the impunity which Israel has enjoyed over seven decades, and the growing international moves to recognise Palestinian independence need to be seen in that context.
No violation of any UN resolution, convention or court ruling has ever led to serious or widespread sanctions. Israel thus never felt any restraint in its - by now openly admitted - quest to thwart Palestinian statehood. On the contrary, from many sides it has received unconditional support, particularly from the US and EU member states.
The horrific attack on October 7 2023 by Hamas on Israeli citizens was rightly widely condemned for its brutality. It triggered world-wide support for Israel’s punitive actions aimed at Hamas, which had killed some 1,200 citizens whilst 250 were abducted and taken into Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel’s onslaught on Gaza has gone beyond its right to defend itself. The death toll of Gazans has surpassed 65,000, the majority women and children, and nearly the entire population is displaced. Gaza’s infrastructure, including health and education facilities, is largely destroyed. The world is witnessing in real time how destruction, displacement and starvation are ticking the remaining boxes of Gergory Stanton’s ten stages of genocide.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has delivered an advisory opinion stating that Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories since 1967 is illegal, including the creation of settlements. It moreover confirmed that since October 7, 2023, the population of Gaza had “plausible rights to protection from genocide”.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) subsequently issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and his former defence minister Yoav Gallant, alongside Hamas leaders since killed in the conflict. Israel is not a State Party to ICC and dismissed its warrants as irrelevant, but Netanyahu and Gallant risk being arrested in countries which are party to the ICC. Israel cannot ignore ICJ’s ruling as it has signed and ratified the Genocide Convention.
Although governments are hesitating to undertake decisive action, cracks are showing. Germany, which has vowed to support Israel regardless, decided to block arms exports to Israel. Italy’s prime minister Claudia Meloni, staunch supporter of Netanyahu, is confronted by two of her top ministers who stated that the argument of self-defence is no longer valid. France’s president Emmanuel Macron declared that Europeans cannot be bystanders anymore.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer wants to recognise Palestine, but only under certain conditions, as does Belgium’s premier Bart de Wever. Finland, Ireland, Luxemburg, Malta, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain have decided to recognise Palestine at the 80th UN General Assembly in September. They are following Sweden which did so ten years ago and the former East-European satellite states of the USSR decades earlier.
Worldwide, as of March 2025, 147 of 193 UN member states have recognised Palestine. More will thus follow, besides forementioned European countries also Australia, Canada and New Zealand, while the US unsurprisingly will not. A score of EU-member countries also decided not to recognise Palestine: Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands as well as non-EU member Switzerland.
The absence of a negotiated peace and mutual Israel-Palestine recognition frequently mentioned as a reason for this. Some add that recognition will not bring a two-state solution any closer, nor will it alleviate the immediate needs of the suffering Gazan population.
Germany, mindful of the Holocaust, is first and foremost concerned with Israel’s safety. Greece, hosting a US base on Crete, has renewed its friendship with the Netanyahu government at the expense of its former pro-Palestinian stance. The Netherlands, through companies registered in Amsterdam, is the world’s largest investor in Israel and a significant importer of Israeli arms.
In view of the sometimes-heated debates around recognition, UN Observer Francesca Albanese has warned of the distraction from concrete actions, since meanwhile the territory is literally “eaten out by advancement of annexation and colonisation”. On August 7 the Knesset approved a symbolic motion calling for the colonisation of the entire West Bank; Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on August 14 stated that before long there will be nothing, and no one left to recognise; on August 20, plans were approved for a military takeover of Gaza city. The Netanyahu government is unlikely to be impressed by the new recognitions.
Indeed, recognition may not help any starving person in Gaza now. It would merely show Israel that a vast majority of the countries in the world still regard a two-state solution as a sine qua non for lasting peace. A sovereign state of Palestine, recognised by the UN, would provide it with legal rights over its territory. Full UN membership, however, has consistently been vetoed by the US in its capacity as permanent member of the Security Council. It is unlikely that the US will soften its stance in any time to come.
Recognition of Palestine therefore is predominantly increasing political pressure on Israel but given recent developments and its trust in being immune for sanctions, no immediate changes can be expected. In absence of US pressure on Netanyahu and his government, the onus is on the EU, Israel’s most important trade partner.
The Europeans could suspend the EU-Israel Trade Agreement (32 per cent of Israel’s exports go to the EU); an arms embargo (Israel is a major arms exporter as well as importer from the EU; impose more sanctions against far-right ministers, settlers and groups accused of violence or incitement; and suspension of academic cooperation.
Such sanctions would severely hurt Israel and that is precisely why EU-wide political support for them is unlikely. Moreover, such sanctions would also hurt the EU itself, but the most effective sanctions are usually the ones that inflict pain on both sides. Many of these measures can also be imposed bilaterally as some countries have done already.
The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide clearly states that State Parties are obligated to take measures to prevent and punish genocide. It may take years for ICJ to determine whether genocide has indeed taken place in Gaza. Based on genocidal statements by the Netanyahu government and facts on the ground, ICJ ruled however that Israel’s acts could amount to genocide. Hence it ordered Israel to take all measures to prevent any acts contrary to the 1948 Genocide Convention.
Yet Netanyahu and his ultra-right ministers are not straying from their genocidal path, despite warnings from hundreds of former Israeli security officials, defence staff and citizens fearing for the life of remaining hostages. The US as well as the EU and its member states have the means to slow down or even halt Netanyahu’s intentions, albeit far too late already, but they so far refrain from any meaningful action. Recognising Palestine at the UN General Assembly will just remain a political signal if the toolbox stays closed.
