Afghans to Get Power Supplies Even if Tajiks Lose Out
Afghans to Get Power Supplies Even if Tajiks Lose Out
The Tajik power industry is worried about losing its market in Afghanistan if it cannot maintain exports of electricity over the winter, and is prepared to cut supplies to domestic consumers to avoid this happening. However, NBCentralAsia analysts say there is little substance to these fears.
On September 12, the deputy chairman of the state-run power company Barqi Tojik, Rashid Gulov, told the Regnum news agency he backed plans to continue supplying electricity to Afghanistan throughout the winter even if Tajikistan went short.
During winter, electricity shortages in Tajikistan mean that many domestic customers only receive power for a few hours a day.
Tajikistan currently supplies Afghanistan with ten megawatts of electricity, all year round. It charges an export price of two US cents per kilowatt-hour, whereas Tajiks pay 0.68 cent.
Barqi Tojik’s head Sharifkhon Samiev said earlier that the supply to Afghanistan will be maintained over the winter to ensure Tajikistan does not lose its share of the market.
Possible competitors include Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which now supply the Afghans with 20 megawatts each.
Afghanistan’s electricity needs are grow by leaps and bounds every year. Gulov said that even now, Tajikistan could be supplying its neighbour with 300 megawatts in the summer period; the problem is that Afghanistan does not have the infrastructure to cope. This will change when high-voltage transmission lines are in place between the two in 2009.
NBCentralAsia analysts argue that Tajikistan has a secure footing on the Afghan electricity market, and it would not lose out even if it had to suspend supplies temporarily.
Georgy Petrov, the head of hydroelelectricity research at the Institute for Water Issues in Tajikistan, says Uzbek and Turkmen electricity is too expensive for them to be able to displace Tajik power.
Tajikistan’s cheap hydroelectricity and close geographical proximity to Afghanistan will always keep it competitive, said Petrov. Kyrgyzstan is the only possible challenger, but it would first have to build larger hydroelectric stations such the Kambarata plant, but this is still at the planning stage.
An NBCentralAsia economic analyst who asked to remain anonymous said even the small amount of power that Tajikistan now exports is enough to make it a player.
Sayfullo Safarov, the deputy director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, said Tajikistan will secure a strong position in the Afghan market, and mitigate the effects of any outages in its exports, if it adopts a prudent and reasonable pricing policy.
“We have to bear in mind that the situation there [in Afghanistan] is difficult,” he said. “To maintain our market there in the long term, we must have predictable and stable policies, selling energy at a price that benefits both parties.”
(NBCentralAsia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region)
On September 12, the deputy chairman of the state-run power company Barqi Tojik, Rashid Gulov, told the Regnum news agency he backed plans to continue supplying electricity to Afghanistan throughout the winter even if Tajikistan went short.
During winter, electricity shortages in Tajikistan mean that many domestic customers only receive power for a few hours a day.
Tajikistan currently supplies Afghanistan with ten megawatts of electricity, all year round. It charges an export price of two US cents per kilowatt-hour, whereas Tajiks pay 0.68 cent.
Barqi Tojik’s head Sharifkhon Samiev said earlier that the supply to Afghanistan will be maintained over the winter to ensure Tajikistan does not lose its share of the market.
Possible competitors include Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which now supply the Afghans with 20 megawatts each.
Afghanistan’s electricity needs are grow by leaps and bounds every year. Gulov said that even now, Tajikistan could be supplying its neighbour with 300 megawatts in the summer period; the problem is that Afghanistan does not have the infrastructure to cope. This will change when high-voltage transmission lines are in place between the two in 2009.
NBCentralAsia analysts argue that Tajikistan has a secure footing on the Afghan electricity market, and it would not lose out even if it had to suspend supplies temporarily.
Georgy Petrov, the head of hydroelelectricity research at the Institute for Water Issues in Tajikistan, says Uzbek and Turkmen electricity is too expensive for them to be able to displace Tajik power.
Tajikistan’s cheap hydroelectricity and close geographical proximity to Afghanistan will always keep it competitive, said Petrov. Kyrgyzstan is the only possible challenger, but it would first have to build larger hydroelectric stations such the Kambarata plant, but this is still at the planning stage.
An NBCentralAsia economic analyst who asked to remain anonymous said even the small amount of power that Tajikistan now exports is enough to make it a player.
Sayfullo Safarov, the deputy director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, said Tajikistan will secure a strong position in the Afghan market, and mitigate the effects of any outages in its exports, if it adopts a prudent and reasonable pricing policy.
“We have to bear in mind that the situation there [in Afghanistan] is difficult,” he said. “To maintain our market there in the long term, we must have predictable and stable policies, selling energy at a price that benefits both parties.”
(NBCentralAsia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region)
