Bosnian Croats Turn to Far-Right

Bosnian Croats are expected to abandon their one-time Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, patrons by voting for extreme right-wing parties in parliamentary elections being held in Croatia this weekend.

For the first time since the end of the war, Bosnia's Croats - who are legally entitled to take part in their neighbour's elections - are likely to back a more nationalist party to represent them in the November 23 poll.

Many of the estimated 350,000 Croats living in Bosnia - the biggest proportion of the Croatian diaspora - still dream of their regions of the country being annexed to Croatia and are increasingly unhappy with the HDZ, which once shared their goal, but has followed a less nationalist agenda in recent months.

An opinion poll conducted last week by the marketing agency Promedia showed that 98 per cent of more than 5,000 Bosnian Croats questioned said they wanted to abolish the border with Croatia.

But HDZ leader Ivo Sanader has played down his party's previous Greater Croatia ambitions, as this is seen as precisely the thing that has prevented the country from faster European integration.

The change in the HDZ's attitude could most recently be seen in its refusal to put members of its Bosnian branch on the list of candidates to represent local Croats in the upcoming ballot.

As a result of HDZ policy, Bosnia's Croats feel abandoned by what they see as their motherland, and are now unlikely to back the party with which they were once so closely associated.

The minority continues to feel that its future lies with Croatia, not Bosnia - many of the community felt short-changed by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement that ended the war and split the country into two entities - Republika Srpska and the Federation.

Even now, Bosnian Croats feel they were forced into the Federation and still entertain thoughts of establishing a separate entity or a union with Croatia.

In Mostar, a local Croat, who gave his name only as Petar, spoke for many when he said, "The question of Croats in Bosnia will not be resolved until we secede. It's either secession or extermination.

"The HDZ is not [the late president Franjo] Tudjman's any more, and the [politicians] we have here are too comfortable in their ministry chairs to care about the way the ordinary people are living."

He along with many other disillusioned Bosnian Croats are expected to vote for an extreme right-wing coalition comprising the Croatian Block and the True Croatian Rebirth - a group led by Marko Tokic, a former HDZ minister who wants to establish a Croat republic in Bosnia.

This will be a significant electoral blow for the HDZ, as the Bosnian Croat vote could help it form a government if, as is expected, it narrowly defeats the ruling coalition at the weekend.

Croats living outside their homeland, like their Bosnian kin, are allowed to take part in Croatia's elections - their combined vote tends to represent between five to eight seats, depending on voter turnout.

Bosnian Croats are the largest group of the electorate outside Croatia. In the 2000 elections, 110,000 of the 127,000 exile voters were from Bosnia, and they mostly voted for the HDZ.

While the HDZ suffered a crushing defeat by a pro-European coalition in the 2000 ballot, opinion polls indicate that it is still the strongest single party in Croatia.

However, analysts believe that Tokic's coalition could take advantage of the diaspora's loss of faith in the HDZ, and move in to take its voters.

Tokic's ambitions for a Croat entity in Bosnia have not changed in the past two years, since the international community forced him to leave active politics after a failed attempt to set up an autonomous territory.

In a pre-election speech to local Croat voters in Mostar, Tokic said he was proud of his actions in the past and underlined the right of the minority to have its own republic within the country - sentiments greeted with rapturous applause by the crowd.

The Tokic coalition also includes Venera Kodric, wife of Dario Kordic, who has been sentenced to 25 years by the war crimes tribunal for his part in ethnic cleansing and other crimes committed during the war in Bosnia.

Other members of the alliance have similar agendas designed to promote the wishes of Bosnian Croats for continuing close relations between them and Zagreb.

Analysts argue that even if the ultra-nationalist coalition is elected to represent the diaspora, its members will have a very difficult job promoting its far-right agenda, as the Zagreb authorities will not want to damage their relationship with the international community and scupper Croatia's chances of European Union membership.

Nerma Jelacic is IWPR project manager in Bosnia and Herzegovina.