Kyrgyzstan Seals Border Deal, Dissenters Remain in Jail

CABAR

The Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting is a project of IWPR

Thursday, 9 February, 2023

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A traditional red carpet and a warm reception welcomed Uzbekistan’s president Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Kyrgyzstan in a state visit aimed at sealing the long-awaited border delimitation between the two countries. The Kyrgyz dissenters who have been detained for protesting against the land swap the deal entails, however, remain in prison and are unlikely to be released anytime soon.

On January 27, Mirziyoyev and his Kyrgyz counterpart Sadyr Japarov ratified the accord, which gives Kyrgyzstan additional land and Uzbekistan the formal control of the Kempir-Abad reservoir, a vital water resource in the fertile Ferghana valley.

The deal sparked controversy as Kyrgyz authorities did not consult the communities near the basin and kept them out of the negotiations. In late October demonstrations resulted in mass arrests: two dozen protesters remain in pre-trial detention and three under house arrest on charges of plotting a coup. On January 18, ahead of Mirziyoyev’s visit, Kyrgyzstan’s interior ministry deemed the case to be classified.

"To me, this makes it even less likely that authorities will release someone,” political analyst Emil Zhuraev told IWPR. “On one hand, this secrecy is likely due to the lack or absence of evidence; on the other, the authorities wouldn't want to admit to having held someone in custody for no reason. It is probable that the case will eventually go to trial, but this process could take some time. [Kyrgyz] society is calmly following the situation, but there isn’t a pressing need or desire for the authorities to quickly resolve the matter.”

In an open letter sent to the media, relatives of the detainees called on Mirziyoyev for support.

“We want you to know that in order to resolve this problem, the fates of innocent people were sacrificed, resulting in tears and sufferings of their families, especially those of little children and elderly parents,” the letter read. “Our mothers and fathers, wives and husbands, daughters and sons, 24 persons in all, have been detained only because they dared to disagree with the transfer of the Kempir-Abad reservoir to your country.”

The arrests came after several unsuccessful attempts from authorities to convince the public of what they deemed to be the agreement’s benefits.

On January 31, supporters held a public meeting to protest the interior ministry’s decision to keep the case classified, with lawyers stating that the move set a precedent of “lawlessness.”

CONTROVERSIAL LAND SWAP

Border delimitations in Central Asia have been an issue since the fall of the Soviet Union and the emergence of five new independent countries.

In 2017, Mirziyoyev traveled to Kyrgyzstan to settle the demarcation of 1,170 of the 1,472 kilometres of common frontier between the two countries. The visit, the first of an Uzbek president in 17 years, was historic and unlocked relations between the two countries.

Negotiations on the remaining 302 kilometres started in 2021, but no details were disclosed. On September 26, 2022 Japarov met Uzbek prime minister Abdulla Aripov in Bishkek for talks on the final demarcation.

When the terms were made public in October, protests, involving also politicians, broke out. 

According to the final agreement, Uzbekistan received 4,957 hectares, including the Kempir-Abad (Andijan) reservoir and an additional 19.5 hectares for the maintenance and protection of the dam. Kyrgyzstan got 1,019 hectares of pasture land and compensation of an additional 12,849 hectares in a separate section of the border. A separate deal defines the joint management of the reservoir’s water.

The reservoir is the key contentious issue. In 2021, Kyrgyz government border spokesman Nazirbek Borubaev said that Kyrgyzstan used about 14 per cent of Kempir-Abad’s water to irrigate land in the western districts of Suzak and Kara-Suu. Uzbekistan has been the main user of the reservoir, built in 1983 on the territory of the then-Kyrgyz Soviet republic. It is of strategic importance to Uzbekistan as it irrigates over two million hectares of agricultural land.

Despite the agreement on joint management of resources, Kyrgyz citizens fear that Uzbekistan would restrict their access to water.

Japarov’s administration had used non-transparent methods with limited discussions with the population, Zhuraev noted.

“To overcome the bitterness felt about the Kempir-Abad reservoir, consistent measures must be used to strengthen trust [in Kyrgyz society],” he told IWPR.

The arrests of civil activists may go beyond the transfer of the reservoir. Some analysts noted that the border deal provided the political opposition with an opportunity to unite and counter the existing power. This was perceived as a threat to Japarov’s rule.

“As errors accumulate, it becomes harder to show any visible results or achievements, and this can lead to dissatisfaction among the public… The current government is suppressing dissenting voices, reducing the chances that someone can emerge to lead them,” Meder Tyulegenov, head of the department of International and Comparative Politics at the American University of Central Asia, told IWPR.

He added that the prisoners wer eunlikely to be released in the near future; although the authorities had no valid arguments to support a case against them, they could drag it on for as long as possible.

“Some would be recognised as indirectly involved, and might be sentenced to probation. But the case has already become politically motivated,” Tyulegenov said.

Political scientist Chinara Esengul, however, maintained that the activists would be discharged on strict instructions to keep silent.

“I think they would be asked to write or state somehow that they were wrong. As far as I know, Tashiev [chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s state committee for national security] suggested [that] some time ago. But these are stubborn people who believe in what they do, that is why they have not done this so far,” she told IWPR.

A WAY OUT?

Member of parliament Iskhak Masaliev has established a deputy commission to examine law enforcements’ actions.

“[Dissenters] pose a threat to certain political figures, not to the state. [I] participated in their meeting, I say publicly that they did not pose any threat,” Masaliev told IWPR. “They should be immediately released, prosecution must be stopped, and common ground should be sought.”

He added that detainees might be released, “after one or two years of litigation… a technique when one seems to be guilty yet he is not. And then they will say, ok, we forgive you.”

National policy expert Chynara Temirova noted that while border issues must be resolved, the decision-making process was as important as the outcome.

“The power that is not able to conduct a constructive dialogue will always take the public as the enemy,” Temirova told IWPR. “Democratic decisions are made in transparency and necessarily foresee compensation to the people who lose with the deal. This very process leads to a decision that does not cause much of a conflict in the society. Therefore, this agreement will always cause discontentment regardless of whether the activists are behind the bars or not.”

The arrests, she added, were a clear signal of the authorities’ weakness and fear of protests. Lacking a long-term strategic plan they would likely resort to the same practice to resolve future issues, leading the country down an increasingly authoritarian path.