Weaponising Winter in the Transnistrian Region

Analysts warn that the ongoing energy interruptions in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria – particularly painful in the midst of a freezing winter – are being exploited by Russia as another tool of hybrid warfare.

The territory, sandwiched between the Nistru River and the Ukrainian border, broke away from Chisinau in 1992 after a war in which Moscow supported the separatist forces.

For many years, Russian gas flowed through Ukraine to the Transnistrian region, where residents effectively received it for free. This agreement expired last year, and supplies have been unreliable ever since.

Irina Tabaranu, the founder of Zona de Securitate.md, the first Moldovan outlet covering the Transnistrian region and surrounding security zone, explained that the current system was neither stable nor sustainable. 

“Specifically, Russia pays for the gas delivered via a Hungarian company, MET,  while payments are routed through intermediary companies based in the United Arab Emirates,” she continued. “In the past, there have been cases when these intermediaries changed the banks through which transactions were processed, leading to delays in gas payments.”

The resulting interruptions usually last only a few days, but “their social impact is significant,” Tabaranu said.

Lilia Breahova, mayor of Gura Bîcului in Anenii Noi, part of the security zone, agreed that people were suffering.

“For many years, residents of Transnistria paid minimal tariffs for electricity and gas—approximately seven times less than people in the rest of Moldova,” she explained. “As a result, household spending on utilities accounted for no more than ten per cent of family budgets. 

“Since the beginning of 2025, energy tariffs have increased, which has led to higher production costs for food and other services, while incomes have remained at the same level,” she continued. “This automatically reduces spending on all other needs. In addition to rising prices for goods and services, people are finding it psychologically difficult to adjust to tariffs that have doubled.”

Marina Gazea, mayor of Molovata Nouă in Dubăsari in the security zone, noted that the energy crisis would severely affect her own community too, due to the village’s geographical isolation and limited access routes.

As well a dramatic increase in electricity bills, the lack of power - especially in winter - would impact on public health and services and hinder supplies of food, medicine and fuel.

Gazea said that there was no doubt that Russia was using and exploiting these difficulties for its own ends.

“The impact of the energy crisis in the Transnistrian area is part of the Russian Federation’s hybrid warfare, which uses energy as a tool of political and social pressure,” she continued. “Controlling or interrupting energy supplies creates instability, insecurity, and public dissatisfaction.”

Russia has long made strenuous efforts to maintain its influence over Moldova and to thwart its European ambitions. This has included intensive malign information campaigns as well as efforts to influence elections, with allegations of vote-buying to target both domestic voters and the diaspora. The energy crisis may be another part of this strategy.

“Moscow retains the ability either to artificially sustain the Transnistrian region or to destabilise it when deemed necessary, with direct consequences for the entire country,” Tabaranu said.

“The continuation of free gas supplies also blocks any real opportunity to change the way the region secures and produces energy. There have been proposals from the European Commission to provide around 60 million euro to purchase gas on the open market in an initial phase, allowing companies in the region a transition period to buy gas independently at real market prices. However, as long as Russia continues to supply gas free of charge, the authorities in Tiraspol prefer to maintain the status quo.”

Cristina Lesnic is a former politician who served two terms as Moldova’s deputy Prime Minister of Moldova for Reintegration and now heads the Institute For Democracy and Development NGO.

She argued that reliable energy supplies were essential to ensure future stability.

“Although there are technical routes for gas delivery — through Ukraine, the Trans‑Balkan corridor, or the Iași–Ungheni-Chișinău pipeline — no supplier is publicly known to be willing to transport gas to the Moldovan‑Romanian border for the Transnistrian region,” she explained. “This lack of transparency and viable options highlights the need for a clear strategic plan that anticipates the region’s energy vulnerabilities and reduces destabilisation risks.”

“The available gas volumes do not cover the needs of the non‑controlled region, and the ‘de facto’ administration in Tiraspol operates at a minimum consumption level. This is not a sustainable solution, but rather a temporary and circumstantial form of resistance. 

EU ACCESSION

In October 2024, Moldova passed a referendum to change the country’s constitution to allow it to join the EU, and its pro-European trajectory was confirmed after the ruling Action and Solidarity party (PAS) held on to its parliamentary majority in key elections a year later.

But the situation in the Transnistria region – which also hosts some 1,500 Russian soldiers purporting to act as “peacekeepers” - has serious and significant implications for Moldova’s accession process. 

“The situation in the Transnistrian region is both a reintegration challenge and an essential condition for the country’s European path,” Lesnic said. “Managing the energy crisis and reducing structural vulnerabilities are integral parts of strengthening security, internal cohesion, and alignment with EU standards. Reintegration is not a separate chapter — it is a prerequisite for the European trajectory.”

“Chişinău will need to find a solution for the reintegration of the region before accession, otherwise serious security-related questions will arise,” Tabaranu agreed. “These concern the EU’s own security when admitting a state with unresolved territorial integrity issues, on whose territory Russian troops are stationed and where a so-called peacekeeping mission involving Russia is present.”

“These are security issues to which EU member states will require clear answers,” she continued. “As long as they remain unresolved, Moldova’s accession process will inevitably be more complex and prolonged.”