Kyrgyzstan Isolated by Nervous Neighbours

Business people and economists in Kyrgyzstan are warning that continued isolation by neighbouring states, which closed their borders to traffic and trade more than a month ago, is doing serious damage to the economy.

They say the country is losing money day after day and are calling for the restrictions to be lifted. But a renewed bout of unrest in southern Kyrgyzstan in recent days is unlikely to encourage the Kazaks and Uzbeks to reopen their frontiers.

Kazakstan and Uzbekistan closed border checkpoints to traffic with their Central Asian neighbour following clashes between protesters and the security forces on April 6 and 7 which left more than 80 people dead. As a result of the Kyrgyz protests, President Kurmanbek Bakiev fled and a new interim government was installed.

Neither the Uzbek nor the Kazak government has given an official explanation why the borders remain sealed, but national security is clearly a major consideration for both states. Events on May 13 and 14, when supporters of ex-president Bakiev seized control of key buildings in southern Kyrgyzstan, must only have deepened their worry that their smaller and poorer neighbour is undergoing a protracted period of instability.

Eduard Poletaev, a political analyst in Kazakstan, argues that the closures reflect Uzbek and Kazak concerns about the prospects for security in Kyrgyzstan, and about dealing with a government that they are still unsure of.

“It’s a test to see how strong these new [Kyrgyz] partners are, and an attempt to make them more pliable,”he said.

Kyrgyzstan is alone among its Central Asian neighbours in having deposed national leaders – Bakiev was ousted when he had been in power for only five years, after replacing Askar Akaev in a similar popular uprising. The Uzbek and Kazak presidents have been in power continuously since the end of the Soviet Union nearly two decades ago, and show no signs of planning an exit.

A resident of the town of Qorasuv, which sits on the Uzbek border facing Kyrgyzstan, told IWPR he was sure the border closure stemmed for fear of contagion.

He recalled how the Andijan uprising of May 2005, which ended in a bloody massacre by Uzbek security forces, came shortly after Kyrgyzstan’s “Tulip Revolution” in March that year.

“And now, after this year’s disturbances, Uzbekistan feared that the mood of the Kyrgyz people would take hold among opposition-minded Uzbeks,” he said.

Sanobar Shermatova, a Moscow-based Central Asia expert, said Uzbekistan was likely to be more cautious than Kazakstan about reviving cross-border traffic.

“I think that with Kazakstan,it’s just a matter of time and will be resolved soon. But Uzbekistan will keep its borders closed until the situation in the south [of Kyrgyzstan] stabilises,” she said.

Some travel is still taking place – Kyrgyz nationals can travel by air, and trucks with internationally-recognised papers are allowed across the borders.

Overall, though, the dramatic reduction of traffic has had a devastating effect, business representatives say.

The head of Kyrgyzstan’s retail association, Sergei Ponomarev, told a May 4 press conference that foreign trade had fallen by more than 50 per cent since the closure and the country had lost millions of dollars. Production was on hold at textile factories and food processing plants, he said.

Economist Jymakadyr Akeneev says all the main sectors have been hit, including exports of construction materials, and imports for agriculture.

“We’ve been unable to import fuel and seeds, and agricultural work has been put on hold,” he said, adding that the disruption of sowing could lead to food shortages later this year.

Kazakstan accounts for more than 13 per cent of Kyrgyz foreign trade, and the country is also a major transit route to Russia, used by traders and by the hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz migrant workers heading there in search of jobs.

Uzbekistan is an important market for Chinese goods imported to Kyrgyzstan and sold at the giant bazaar at Karasuu (opposite Qorasuv). For many people in the populous and impoverished south of Kyrgyzstan, this trade is a major income source. In northern Kyrgyzstan, the Dordoi market serves a similar function as an export point to Kazakstan.

The closures have stifled trading activity at both markets.

NadiraNarmatova,a businesswoman from Oshin southern Kyrgyzstan, said she had lost 1,500 US dollars – a month’s earnings for her – because of the collapse in trade at Karasuu.

Some suspect neighbouring states of using the instability as an excuse to bring Kyrgyzstan to heel on economic matters. One theory is that they want to prod Kyrgyzstan into entering the customs union which Russia, Kazakstan and Belarus set up earlier this year.

Economist Ulan Sarbanov said that in his view, “the border closure is mainly about whether Kyrgyzstan is going to join the customs union, and has less to do with the events of early April”.

The Kyrgyz authorities are continue efforts to unblock border traffic.

Interim leader Roza Otunbaeva discussed the issue in a phone call with Kazak president Nursultan Nazarbaev in early May, but despite an announcement by Finance Minister Temir Sariev that the border would reopen a few days later, this did not happen.

Isomidin Ahmedjanov and Asyl Osmonalieva are IWPR-trained journalists in Kazakstan, Yaroslava Naumenko is a reporter in Kazakstan, and Dina Tokbaeva is IWPR editor for Kyrgyzstan.

This article was produced jointly under two IWPR projects: Building Central Asian Human Rights Protection & Education Through the Media, funded by the European Commission; and the Human Rights Reporting, Confidence Building and Conflict Information Programme, funded by the Foreign Ministry of Norway.

The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of IWPR and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of either the European Union or the Foreign Ministry of Norway.