Election No Cause for Complacency

While the presidential election in Afghanistan was not marred by major violence, powerful local commanders and Taleban remnants still intimidate ordinary Afghans, according to a leading international human rights group.

In reports released prior to the October 9 election, New York-based Human Rights Watch had warned that the threat of violence might keep voters from the polls, particularly in remote provinces.

However, major attacks on polling stations did not materialise, and Afghans flocked to vote.

Sam Zarifi, associate director of Human Rights Watch's Asia Division, said in an interview with IWPR that the voter turnout was a major triumph.

"Without any doubt, the people of Afghanistan should be extraordinarily proud of themselves," he said.

The Taleban, for instance, had vowed to disrupt elections, but were unable to launch coordinated attacks on voting day. Zarifi credited the presence of international peacekeeping forces with preventing the Taleban from sabotaging the election.

"The Taleban did not have the power to carry out any organised attack in the presence of security forces," said Zarifi. "So election day must count as the Taleban's day of defeat, because it showed they have neither military power nor the people's support."

However, Zarifi added that many of the same threats that existed prior to elections remain in place.

"Although election day was pretty much peaceful, and more people participated than expected, warlords still intimidated people prior to elections, especially women," he said.

According to Human Rights Watch, women in Afghanistan face two distinct threats: one from the Taleban, who oppose women playing any role in society, and another from local commanders, who often run their territories like personal fiefdoms. Zarifi said the refusal of women to be intimidated on election day testified to their desire to take part in the political process.

Militia commanders had only a limited ability to influence the outcome of the presidential vote, Zarifi said. But he urged the international community to pay close attention to the selection of a cabinet by the new president.

The government of interim president Hamed Karzai has in the past included several powerful commanders, including Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim, the minister of defence. Human Rights Watch is worried that a new government will include commanders or those with ties to the narcotics trade.

"When the [new] president declares his cabinet, we will see whether the warlords and criminals will be part of that cabinet or not," said Zarifi. "In a future government, there must be no room for warlords, and the election commission must preserve the legality of the election by excluding criminals."

Zarifi also faulted United States policymakers, saying that Washington has at times lent tacit support to militia commanders.

"Over the past two and a half years, the United States has collaborated with warlords, and used them, when they could have kept them away from the Emergency Loya Jirga [in 2002]," he said. "It was a mistake for the US and the United Nations to let these warlords resume their political activities."

Zarifi said he saw some signs of a shift in US policy, citing its support for the ouster of Ismail Khan, a powerful local leader in Heart.

After the dismissal of Ismail Khan in Herat, Zarifi argued, the political atmosphere changed for the better, with independent publications and civil groups springing into existence.

The parliamentary ballot scheduled for next spring is another cause for worry. Zarifi said local commanders would have a better chance of influencing the outcome of the general election through both intimidation and fraud.

To date, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, ISAF, has limited its presence to Kabul and some northern provinces. Human Rights Watch has recommended that ISAF forces be stationed all over Afghanistan before the parliamentary election.

Zarifi added that international observers and the right equipment must be on the ground in advance of the elections in order to prevent irregularities.

He urged the international community to maintain its focus on Afghanistan.

"Regrettably, the success of election day comes with the danger that the international community will declare that Afghanistan has made the transition to democratic government – that it is now perfect, and there is no need for further international assistance," he said.

Wahidullah Amani is an IWPR staff reporter in Kabul.