Central Asia Sees Lean Year Ahead

Already struggling with shortages of water and electricity and the impact of global food price rises, Central Asia has been hit by yet another curse – a plague of locusts that adds to other threats to the region’s ability to feed itself.



Parts of the region, especially Tajikistan in the south, suffer from locust invasions on an almost annual basis. This year, an unusually warm spring is being blamed for the intensive reproduction cycle of the Moroccan locust species.



Even though the winter was exceptionally cold across the region, the weather subsequently became so hot that vegetation rapidly dried out, forcing the swarms to migrate more rapidly than normally to satisfy their constant hunger.



As a result, there are fears that efforts to contain the spread of the insects will be inadequate and they will cause significant to crops.



In Kazakstan, the latest data indicate that the locust infestation has already damaged 200,000 hectares of land in the South Kazakstan region. Here it is livestock breeders who have been worst affected, forced to sell off their animals because the locusts destroyed their forage crops.



According to the agriculture ministry in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, more than 80,000 hectares of land have to be treated with chemicals. The ministry does not have crop-spraying planes to attack the swarms, and is having to bring in private firms to do the job.



There are no figures for Uzbekistan, but 150,000 hectares of farmland is known to have been attacked by locusts in Tajikistan. United Nations representatives say Tajikistan needs urgent help to combat the infestation, which is spread over four times the area occupied last year.



The UN is allocating 13 million dollars for pesticide treatment, but says the country needs a total of 25 million if it is to save its crops.



Political analyst Rashid Abdullo argues that at a regional level, the war on locusts is ineffective because the various states no longer coordinate their actions. “In Soviet times, this problem was addressed comprehensively by all the [Central Asian] republics and neighbouring Afghanistan,” he said. “Now each country tackles its problems alone on the basis of self-interest, and according to its economic and technical capacity to do so.”



This year’s locust invasion comes at a time when parts of Central Asia are still recovering from severe energy crises caused by an abnormal winter freeze. In February, the Tajik government was forced to international funding after suffering losses of about 850 million dollars over the winter.



The destruction of new crops also comes in the wake of price rises that have affected food products in the poorest regional states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where more than half the population lives in poverty. Last autumn, bread prices saw increases of 200 or 300 per cent.



Added to this is a ban on grain sales by Kazakstan, the region’s breadbasket, imposed to keep domestic prices from going up in an environment of rising world fuel prices. Exports halted in April and are expected to resume only in September, and this is expected to create real difficulties for purchasing countries like Kyrgyzstan.



A former Kyrgyz agriculture minister, Jumakadyr Akeneev, says that at around 60,000 tons, reserves of wheat are currently much lower than they should be. Food security is laid down in law in Kyrgyzstan, and the rule is that the state should maintain reserves of basic foodstuffs sufficient to feed vulnerable social groups for a three-month period. That means a figure of 250,000 tons of wheat, a staple item.



“There is currently a potential threat to grain security,” said Akeneev.



Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiev asked for help with grain and wheat when he visited Kazakstan recently, but nothing has materialised yet and current stocks are running out.



“Everybody is hoping Kazakstan will set aside 300,000 tons of wheat, as provided for by a verbal agreement between the presidents of the two countries,” said Akeneev. “Yet one should be realistic – there is no official contract saying this amount has to be supplied to Kyrgyzstan.”



He added that 300,000 tons would see Kyrgyzstan though to its own next harvest in three months’ time.



Akeneev believe the current shortfall could be relieved in future if government bought wheat from private farmers at a good price. The low prices paid in recent years have led farmers to curtail the area they assign to this unprofitable crop.



It is hard to say how close Kyrgyzstan could get to ensuring its own food security, as it is not even clear how much land there is available. The official figures say at least 780,000 hectares, while agriculture ministry staff say the reality is much less than that.



Agriculture Minister Arstanbek Nogoev wants to create a “buffer-zone reserve”, which would entail the government securing supplies of grain by contracting with farmers in advance of the harvest. The plan, which is included in a broader agricultural reform programme, is to end up with a reserve of between 150,000 and 200,000 tons of wheat.



With large reserves, the state would then be in a position to step in and take action whenever it wanted to reduce the effect of fluctuating market prices.



Kazakstan may provide a model, with a state agency that controls seven million tons, a quarter of all the grain grown in the country. “Only by creating an analogous agency in Kyrgyzstan will we be able to protect the domestic market from speculators and from fluctuations on the world market, and provide home-grown crops in the amounts that are need,” said Nogoev.



If Kyrgyzstan buys about 30 per cent of the wheat it consumes from Kazakstan every year, Tajikistan imports more than 40 per cent of its wheat. One reason for this is that much of the arable land available is given over to cotton, a lucrative export earner, rather than cereals.



Some economists say the country should switch from cotton to growing its own food.



However, political analyst Parviz Mullojanov pointed out that even if radical restructuring of the farming sector were to be undertaken, it would take years to carry it though – whereas the food crisis is being felt now.



He painted a gloomy picture of what would happen if further rises in food prices later this year were followed by more energy shortages, “The conjunction of these two factors could create very serious social tensions in most of the countries of the region, including Tajikistan.”



The prospects for a good harvest across Central Asia this year are made even less good by unseasonably low water levels. The extreme, prolonged frosts over the winter created huge demand for electricity, forcing the governments of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to increase the rate at which water was let out of their mountain reservoirs to drive the generating turbines.



The water level in the Toktogul reservoir, which generates 40 per cent of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity, is at a critically low level and output has become erratic. Even the capital Bishkek is experiencing blackouts of 13 or 14 hours. The authorities say river levels are at least 50 per cent lower than is normal for this time of year, due to low rainfall and slower-than-usual melting of snows.



Baratali Koshmatov, director of the water management department in the Kyrgyz agriculture ministry, told IWPR that farmers had been asked to plant crops that need little irrigation, as a way of conserving water.



Downstream from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the low river levels are also taking their toll on cotton, rice and wheat plantations in Kazakstan and Uzbekistan. Some 450,000 hectares of irrigated land is under threat in Kazakstan, and more than three million hectares in Uzbekistan.



The lack of water, and its effect on food and cash crops, affects all these countries. But Kazakastan and Uzbekistan can at least import the extra food they need, using revenue from oil and gas sales. Neither Tajikistan nor Kyrgyzstan has that option.



Firuz Saidov, an economist in the Tajik capital Dushanbe, said high world food prices coupled with the range of problems now disrupting life in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – energy, water and locusts to name but three – could have serious social effects.



“To obtain flour, people will reduce their consumption of other foodstuffs,” he explained. “The staple foodstuff is bread, so if it becomes unaffordable, it will have a major impact and will reduce the standard of living of the poorest sections of the population.”