Cautious Optimism for New Iraqi Government

Residents and Sunni Arab leaders in Baghdad are cautiously waiting for the new government to form and expressed hope that Iraq would soon see better days.



As Baghdad once again plunged into darkness - the government is offering about four hours of electricity a day - and as car bombs, shootings and kidnappings continue in many regions of the country, Iraqis in the capital recognised they are facing an uphill battle.



But despite a parliamentary election that bordered on the ugly, with accusations of fraud at ballot boxes and a fair amount of mud-slinging among candidates, residents and politicians interviewed here maintained cautious optimism about Iraq's first permanent government following the overthrow of former leader Saddam Hussein.



"I hope the government will be formed quickly, unlike that of (current prime minister Ibrahim) al-Ja'afari," said Salim Hamdi, a 45-year-old taxi driver. "I hope this government understands the concerns of the Iraqi people and our daily needs."



"Security first and foremost," maintained Asma Mahdi, a 22-year-old university student. "Then power and water."



The final results of the December 15, 2005 parliamentary elections showed the United Iraqi Alliance, a Shia coalition, which dominates the current parliament, captured the highest number of the national assembly's 275 seats.



The United Iraqi Alliance won 128, the Kurdistan Alliance 53 and the main Sunni Arab list, the Iraqi Accord Front, 44. The results are expected to be ratified this week, and members of parliament will hold power for four years.



Forty-three parties and political movements formed a group called the Maram Movement that opposed the election results, claiming the United Iraqi Alliance, which currently holds 146 seats in parliament, was guilty of electoral fraud. However, Maram said its members would participate in politics even if they did not trust the results or Iraq's leading party.



That position marks a significant difference from the January 2004 elections, when Sunni Arab parties refused to participate and most Sunni Arab voters boycotted the polls.



Saleh al-Mutlaq's Iraqi Front for National Dialogue captured 11 seats. The Sunni Arab leader - considered a hard-line Sunni Arab in some circles and a strong community organiser in others - ran on a tough anti-US occupation platform. He said he believes there were more cases of fraud than the Independent Electoral Commission in Iraq, IECI, reported but that he would enter parliament nonetheless.



"We are looking for a national unity government," said Mutlaq. "Its task is gaining independence for Iraq and restoring safety for Iraqis."



"Whatever the percentage of representation will be in the national assembly, the new government is going to be a national unity government pushing the political process forward in Iraq," said Baha al-Araji, a representative in the current national assembly and a member of the United Iraqi Alliance.



The election was marred by claims of fraud by Sunni Arab slates and the Iraqi National List led by former prime minister Ayad Allawi, which captured 25 seats. The IECI reported there were more than 2,000 allegations of irregularities.



The commission declared void votes from 227 ballot boxes, throwing out 53 ballot boxes in full. Investigators, including an international team monitoring, found fake ballots in some stations and discovered that too many votes were cast in others.



The number of cancelled ballots amounted to less than 1 per cent of an estimated 11 million ballots cast. But it has increased mistrust of the United Iraqi Alliance, which critics maintain led a religiously conservative and sectarian government in 2005.



The Shia-dominated government, led by Ja'afari of the Dawa Party, was faced with a dire security situation that only deteriorated as the year wore on. It was accused of imprisoning, torturing and in some cases killing Sunni Arabs, as well as taking an excessively hard stance against suspected Sunni Arab insurgents.



Although it captured most seats, the United Iraqi Alliance will need to work with other parties and be prepared to share out ministerial posts in order to create a government, say analysts.



"The Shia alliance needs to stop its … attempts to dominate most of the (cabinet) posts if it wants a national unity government based on accordance," said Salim al-Saad, a political analyst from Iraq Centre for Democracy.



The prime minister is likely to be a member of the United Iraqi Alliance, but many opposition figures are opposed to Ja'afari being re-elected as premier. Sunni Arabs and secular leaders such as Allawi may support Nadim al-Jabiri, the al-Fadhila party's candidate for prime minister, another analyst suggested. The party is one of the less powerful members of the United Iraqi Alliance.



"The Sunnis, Kurds and Arabs have a duty to unite with Allawi and the al-Fadhila party," said Ihsan al-Ubaidi, a political analyst at al-Nahrain University in Baghdad. "They need to form a government that stays away from Shia religious extremism, which, if it continues, will lead the country into a civil and sectarian war."



Zaineb Naji and Daud Salman are IWPR trainee journalists in Baghdad.