Biden Visit Fails to Ease US Withdrawal Tensions

Thursday, 8 July, 2010

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Abeer Mohammed

United States vice president Joseph Biden appears to have failed to soothe US-Iraq tensions or break a domestic political deadlock during his surprise visit to Baghdad last week.

The visit came as Washington has been increasingly under fire from media and politicians in Baghdad, who feel the US is neglecting its responsibilities in Iraq as its involvement in Afghanistan intensifies.

Critics say the administration of President Barack Obama is prioritising its pledge to withdraw 40,000 combat forces from Iraq by the end of August to the detriment of long-term bilateral relations.

There is concern that without the US security presence, Iraq will be consumed once again by sectarian violence and remain wracked with political paralysis and corruption. Shootings and bombings are still a daily occurrence, as evidenced by a barrage of mortar rounds that struck Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone just hours after Biden arrived there.

Some fear the vacuum left by the US will be quickly exploited by neighbouring countries eager to cash in on Iraq’s vast oil wealth, or regional insurgent groups seeking recruits from its dispirited population.

Although some 50,000 non-combat US personnel will remain until the end of 2011, government and local officials worry that the withdrawal of US forces and experts will render them even less able to provide basic services to their citizens.

“Obama’s strategy is unfair to Iraq,” said Ibrahim al-Sumaidei, a Baghdad political analyst and newspaper columnist. “He should be concerned about his country’s commitments towards Iraq. He should not turn his back and leave Iraq so casually. He is leaving this state and its people in the middle of a potential bloodbath. The US has an ethical commitment here.”

In an Independence Day speech at the US embassy in Baghdad, Biden was quick to reassure Iraqi officials of American engagement, “[On] August 31, we will change our military mission by drawing closer to all of you, not further apart.

“Our commitment to you will not disappear on August 31; it will grow stronger. As you continue to stand up and build your democracy, we’ll be there with you economically, politically, socially [and in the fields of] science and education.”

Biden spent three days meeting senior officials and powerbrokers in a bid to coax opposing political blocs to set aside rivalries and form a coalition government, four months after parliamentary elections.

Establishing a functioning democracy was a stated aim of the US occupation, and now some politicians here are holding Washington to this.

“The Americans were the so-called ‘democracy builder’ in Iraq, so they should stay and be the democracy guards,” said Hamid al-Mutlaq, a leader of the Iraqiya political bloc which was the narrow winner in the March 7 vote.

“They toppled the former regime and brought elections to this country so it is their responsibility to protect democracy. They should do their best to prove that their reason for coming to Iraq was to establish democracy, and they can do this by pushing to apply the results of the election.”

Experts said the fact that there were no major breakthroughs in the political impasse during Biden’s visit was as much a testament to the complexities of Iraq politics as perceptions of Washington’s declining leverage.

As it stands, the leading coalition Iraqiya, a predominantly Sunni bloc led by former prime minister Ayad Allawi, is facing a serious challenge from the merger of two Shia coalitions which now stand just four seats short of the 163-seat majority needed to form a government.

A dispute over incumbent prime minister Nuri al-Maliki’s demand for another term has cast doubt on the strength of the Shia alliance between Maliki’s State of Law bloc and the Iraqi National Alliance, or INA.

Biden met privately with Allawi and Maliki as well as with President Jalal Talabani, the senior Kurdish leader, and Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the INA. He did not meet with representatives of radical, anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, although the so-called Sadrists won some 40 seats and have been billed as kingmakers in the next administration.

“American interference in politics usually comes in pursuit of its own interests, not the interests of Iraq,” said Ameer al-Kenani, a senior Sadrist leader. “America wants Iraq to be a success, but they want credit for the success. For this reason, the US will support the blocs that are loyal to them and pit the others against each other.

“Maliki is closer to the US than the INA because the INA includes Sadrists. As a result, the US is trying to convince State of Law to join an alliance with Iraqiya. Biden’s problem is that both Allawi and Maliki want the premiership. He was trying to convince one of them to drop their demands.”

Biden distanced himself from endorsing any political group, making it clear that all factions should be represented in the next government.

“All are going to have to play a meaningful role in this new government in order for it to work. My plea to you is to finish what you started… When a new government is formed, it will mark something absolutely extraordinary: a peaceful transition of power encompassing all the people of Iraq, maybe for the first time in their history,” Biden said in his July 4 speech.

Others were less optimistic about the outcome of the grinding political stalemate that shows little sign of ending any time soon.

“It is impossible to predict when the new government will form,” said Khalid al-Asadi, a leader of the State of Law coalition. “It could be within days, but it will probably be months. No one can guess. This is Iraq, everything is possible.”

Abeer Mohammad is IWPR’s senior local editor in Baghdad.