GUAM Seeks Kazaks and Turkmen as Members
GUAM Seeks Kazaks and Turkmen as Members
The members of the GUAM grouping - Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova – are keen to get Turkmenistan and Kazakstan on board, but NBCentralAsia observers say there is no way these energy-rich states would jeopardise their relationships with Russia by joining this rival organisation.
At the end of a GUAM summit at Baku on June 19, Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliev said the group’s membership should be expanded.
GUAM was founded in 1997 to establish a Eurasian-Transcaucasian corridor supplying Caspian oil to the world market, bypassing Russia. Uzbekistan joined in 1999, but suspended its membership three years later.
Aliev has not ruled out the possibility of providing transport and pipelines for Turkmen and Kazak hydrocarbons, and he told the Ekho Azerbaijani news agency that Caspian oil “should be supplied to Europe via GUAM”.
The organisation also fortified its anti-Russian stance during the summit by agreeing to explore the possibility of creating a peacekeeping force that could replace the Russian contingents currently deployed in Transdniestria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.
The organisation’s biggest economic project is the Odessa-Brody-Gdansk oil pipeline which, once completed, will have a capacity of 50 million tons a year and should reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian energy. However, the main section of the pipeline constructed six years ago is currently lying idle because Azerbaijan cannot guarantee to fill it to capacity. This is cause for concern for other GUAM members, which are looking for supplementary suppliers.
NBCentralAsia political scientists say that while the presence of Turkmenistan and Kazakstan as members would bolster GUAM immensely, they will be deterred from joining by the group’s antagonistic attitude towards Russia.
An observer based in Ashgabat says Turkmenistan would only be interested in GUAM transport links – Caspian shipping, railways running from Azerbaijan, and connections between Ukraine and Turkey.
“GUAM positions itself as an advocate and conduit of democracy, and the Turkmen authorities will definitely be wary of this…. so it is unlikely [Turkmenistan] will join,” said the observer.
However, Kazakstan-based analyst Eduard Poletaev argues that the proposals voiced in Baku were purely economic in nature, relating to energy cooperation, so they will not go completely ignored.
“If GUAM offers more profitable supply arrangements, Kazakstan might review its agreement with Russia in favour of the West,” he said.
Rovshan Ibrahimov, international relations expert at Qafqaz University in Azerbaijan, says that if Turkmenistan and Kazakstan joined GUAM, it would enhance the organisation’s image. But he believes Turkmenistan will not risk undermining its relationship with Russia, and argues that it can in any case develop its own energy projects in any case without having to join regional organisations.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
At the end of a GUAM summit at Baku on June 19, Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliev said the group’s membership should be expanded.
GUAM was founded in 1997 to establish a Eurasian-Transcaucasian corridor supplying Caspian oil to the world market, bypassing Russia. Uzbekistan joined in 1999, but suspended its membership three years later.
Aliev has not ruled out the possibility of providing transport and pipelines for Turkmen and Kazak hydrocarbons, and he told the Ekho Azerbaijani news agency that Caspian oil “should be supplied to Europe via GUAM”.
The organisation also fortified its anti-Russian stance during the summit by agreeing to explore the possibility of creating a peacekeeping force that could replace the Russian contingents currently deployed in Transdniestria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.
The organisation’s biggest economic project is the Odessa-Brody-Gdansk oil pipeline which, once completed, will have a capacity of 50 million tons a year and should reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian energy. However, the main section of the pipeline constructed six years ago is currently lying idle because Azerbaijan cannot guarantee to fill it to capacity. This is cause for concern for other GUAM members, which are looking for supplementary suppliers.
NBCentralAsia political scientists say that while the presence of Turkmenistan and Kazakstan as members would bolster GUAM immensely, they will be deterred from joining by the group’s antagonistic attitude towards Russia.
An observer based in Ashgabat says Turkmenistan would only be interested in GUAM transport links – Caspian shipping, railways running from Azerbaijan, and connections between Ukraine and Turkey.
“GUAM positions itself as an advocate and conduit of democracy, and the Turkmen authorities will definitely be wary of this…. so it is unlikely [Turkmenistan] will join,” said the observer.
However, Kazakstan-based analyst Eduard Poletaev argues that the proposals voiced in Baku were purely economic in nature, relating to energy cooperation, so they will not go completely ignored.
“If GUAM offers more profitable supply arrangements, Kazakstan might review its agreement with Russia in favour of the West,” he said.
Rovshan Ibrahimov, international relations expert at Qafqaz University in Azerbaijan, says that if Turkmenistan and Kazakstan joined GUAM, it would enhance the organisation’s image. But he believes Turkmenistan will not risk undermining its relationship with Russia, and argues that it can in any case develop its own energy projects in any case without having to join regional organisations.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
