More Party Manoeuvring on the Cards
More Party Manoeuvring on the Cards
Most of the political space in Kazakstan has been filled following a wave of party mergers, but NBCentralAsia analysts predict a surge of political activity now that constitutional reforms look set to strengthen the role of parties.
On May 15, the Ak Jol and Adilet parties announced that they had merged ahead of local administration or “maslikhat” elections later this year. Meanwhile, a group of Kazak nationalist parties said they were setting up new party called Khalyk Ruhy, or the Spirit of the People.
Party mergers have become a growing trend over the past year. The governing Nur Otan party has swallowed up Asar and the Civic and Agrarian parties. The Party of Patriots and the Auil party created an election bloc called Birlik, while Kazakstan’s two Communist parties merged into one.
In January, Alash, Sootechetsvennik, Atameken and the National Federation of Farmers of Kazakstan created a political union. The same month, the National Social Democratic Party was registered. Atameken emerged last autumn as a centre-right party, and a new social democratic party called Alga was set up. Neither Atameken nor Alga has been officially registered as a party yet.
On May 16, parliament approved the first reading of a set of amendments to the constitution proposed by President Nursultan Nazarbaev. If adopted, these would increase the number of seats in both the lower and upper houses of parliament from 116 to 154 and give them more of a say in forming governments.
The entire lower house of parliament or Majilis would be elected by the party list system. Only 10 members of parliament are currently elected from party lists, with the remaining 67 elected from single-mandate constituencies. The next parliamentary election will be held in 2009.
NBCentralAsia analysts say that although the anticipated constitutional reform has already prompted a range of mergers, the country’s parties are likely to become even more active now that it is clear the amendments will give them more power.
“The process of party consolidation is not yet complete. Since the president has said elections are to be based on a majority system, the role of political parties will grow significantly. Serious changes will take place in area of parties, and huge sums of money will be invested,” said NBCentralAsia analyst Eduard Poletaev.
NBCentralAsia political scientists say that although the Kazak nationalists have failed to offer policies that appeal to the whole of the electorate, they still occupy a stable political niche and can expect to win seats in both maslihats and parliament.
As for the opposition parties, political scientist Oleg Sidorov believes that “apart from a desire to win seats in parliament, there is virtually nothing that unites Adilet and Ak Jol”, so their chances in parliamentary elections are very slim, even if Alga gets registered and joins forces with them.
However, other observers say that although Ak Jol and Adilet have grown weaker in recent times, the merger should help them gather strength and become a viable opposition.
“Adilet and Ak Jol represent a fairly constructive opposition to the existing authorities, and their platforms are actually quite close together,” said Poletaev. “Combining their efforts and resources will give them a chance to win seats.”
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
On May 15, the Ak Jol and Adilet parties announced that they had merged ahead of local administration or “maslikhat” elections later this year. Meanwhile, a group of Kazak nationalist parties said they were setting up new party called Khalyk Ruhy, or the Spirit of the People.
Party mergers have become a growing trend over the past year. The governing Nur Otan party has swallowed up Asar and the Civic and Agrarian parties. The Party of Patriots and the Auil party created an election bloc called Birlik, while Kazakstan’s two Communist parties merged into one.
In January, Alash, Sootechetsvennik, Atameken and the National Federation of Farmers of Kazakstan created a political union. The same month, the National Social Democratic Party was registered. Atameken emerged last autumn as a centre-right party, and a new social democratic party called Alga was set up. Neither Atameken nor Alga has been officially registered as a party yet.
On May 16, parliament approved the first reading of a set of amendments to the constitution proposed by President Nursultan Nazarbaev. If adopted, these would increase the number of seats in both the lower and upper houses of parliament from 116 to 154 and give them more of a say in forming governments.
The entire lower house of parliament or Majilis would be elected by the party list system. Only 10 members of parliament are currently elected from party lists, with the remaining 67 elected from single-mandate constituencies. The next parliamentary election will be held in 2009.
NBCentralAsia analysts say that although the anticipated constitutional reform has already prompted a range of mergers, the country’s parties are likely to become even more active now that it is clear the amendments will give them more power.
“The process of party consolidation is not yet complete. Since the president has said elections are to be based on a majority system, the role of political parties will grow significantly. Serious changes will take place in area of parties, and huge sums of money will be invested,” said NBCentralAsia analyst Eduard Poletaev.
NBCentralAsia political scientists say that although the Kazak nationalists have failed to offer policies that appeal to the whole of the electorate, they still occupy a stable political niche and can expect to win seats in both maslihats and parliament.
As for the opposition parties, political scientist Oleg Sidorov believes that “apart from a desire to win seats in parliament, there is virtually nothing that unites Adilet and Ak Jol”, so their chances in parliamentary elections are very slim, even if Alga gets registered and joins forces with them.
However, other observers say that although Ak Jol and Adilet have grown weaker in recent times, the merger should help them gather strength and become a viable opposition.
“Adilet and Ak Jol represent a fairly constructive opposition to the existing authorities, and their platforms are actually quite close together,” said Poletaev. “Combining their efforts and resources will give them a chance to win seats.”
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
