Political Confusion After Kadyrov

The building of Chechnya's central election commission is cool and empty. In contrast to the republic's bustling election campaign last year it is a scene of inactivity. The chairman of the commission Abdul-Kerim Arsakhanov strolls down the corridor and admits, "Yes there really aren't many candidates."

A month before registration ends for presidential candidates in the forthcoming elections in Chechnya on August 29, to succeed assassinated pro-Moscow leader Akhmad Kadyrov, only four candidates have signalled an interest and only one of those is a prominent figure.

Moscow-based businessman Malik Saidullayev, a well-known figure in Chechnya, was disqualified from last October's elections but has decided to try again. The other candidates, Mariyat Gorchkhanova, Vakha Visayev and Marat Zainalabidov are virtually unknown, even in Chechnya.

So this is a time of waiting in Chechnya while some heavyweight potential candidates make up their minds and - most importantly - the Kremlin decides who its preferred man is to be.

Arskhanov hinted rather too openly at this. "That is the way our mentality," he said. "We need everything at once. People will not stand for president until they have firm assurances." The clear implication was that potential candidates are waiting for the approval of the Kremlin.

The electoral commission head then corrected himself, saying, "It's not important who the Kremlin stakes on - the electors will decide everything."

It is a time of uncertainty in Chechnya, in which no one knows who their next leader will be.

The bomb blast in Grozny's Dinamo Stadium on May 9 killed not only President Kadyrov, elected last October after three years as the republic's de facto leader, but also the second most powerful figure in Chechnya, head of the Chechen State Council, Hussein Isayev.

Pro-independence rebel forces will also have been disappointed if they had hoped the assassination of Kadyrov would cause the whole pro-Moscow administration to come tumbling down. Political analyst Murad Magomadov said, "Of course the people who planned the act of terror were expecting immediate political consequences (and I don't count the fact that this act is being used for propaganda purposes) in the sense of a change of Moscow's Chechen policy. But for that to happen something bigger than the death of Kadyrov had to happen."

In fact the immediate result was to strengthen the hand of the Russian military, which was losing power because of Russian president Vladimir Putin's policy of "Chechenization" - delegation of power to Kadyrov.

Political analyst Edilbek Khasmagomadov summarises the ideal attributes the Kremlin is looking for in Chechnya's next leader, "It should be a person who knows from inside how Russia's state system works, who has good connections both inside Russia and outside it. As a rule, senior security service officers have all of these qualities. Besides this person has to have a fairly strong character to be a leader in Chechnya."

In neighbouring Ingushetia Moscow found a suitable candidate in Russian intelligence service general Murat Zyazikov, who is now president of the republic. However, the analyst said that no obvious person from this background had been found in Chechnya and that therefore the decision was being taken to choose a member of the Kadyrov administration.

So the clear favourite is current interior minister Alu Alkhanov. Russian television is currently giving him a lot of favourable coverage and although he never had anything to do with the Grozny football team Terek he was part of the delegation when President Putin received the team after its recent victory in the Russia Cup.

Alkhanov, 47, is a career police officer and interior ministry official. During the first Chechen war of 1994-6, he was one of the few Chechens who fought with federal forces against the pro-independence rebels - something that will endear him to Russian security services, who were always suspicious of Kadyrov because he fought on the other side in that conflict.

In 2000 Alkhanov was appointed head of the railway police in Grozny and in 2003 interior minister under Kadyrov. He was regarded as a leading member of the "Kadyrov team" and, importantly, belonged to the same "teip" (or Chechen clan) as Kadyrov, the Benoi.

Both Alkhanov and the other man talked about as a potential successor to Kadyrov, Ruslan Yamadayev, have armed men under their command and connections with the rebel fighters.

In any case, Kadyrov's younger son Ramzan who is in charge of thousands of armed men - and who at the age of 27 is too young to run for president - is likely to remain a powerful figure in Chechnya.

Other strong candidates are staying out of a race they do not believe they can win. Aslambek Aslakhanov, a senior Chechen with political connections in Moscow going back more than a decade and former member of parliament, has already ruled himself out. He has well-publicized differences with the Kadyrov administration.

So has another prominent businessman, Hussein Jabrailov, who ran last year. "He's already had a conversation in the Kremlin and after that he firmly announced that he is doesn't intend to take part in the presidential elections in Chechnya," Shamsuddin Tsakayev, Jabrailov's former election manager, told IWPR.

Locals are also anticipating that Saidullayev's poll hopes will run into trouble, as they did last year. Last time he was barred from the election on the grounds that his signatures of support for his candidacy had been wrongly filled out - even as he was picking up widespread public support. A Moscow lawyer working for Kadyrov admitted in private that his team had prepared ways of removing Saidullayev.

Ordinary Chechens have no faith in the forthcoming elections. "How many elections have we had in the last year?" asked Grozny resident Khamzat Gakayev. "And who won in them?" Gakayev said that the only time he voted was in the constitutional referendum of March last year, "They promised us that afterwards life in Chechnya would improve. But it turned out they were empty promises and that Moscow just wanted us to provide a big turnout."

This scepticism will make things even harder for the Kremlin's favoured candidate in the August poll.

The biggest problem for Alkhanov is that the he lacks the political clout enjoyed by Kadyrov. Khasmagomadov sees talk of his candidacy as evidence of the Kremlin's lack of strategic direction in Chechnya.

"The upshot is that Moscow is taking a kind of 'time-out' and conserving the situation for the time being," he said. "In the end this option doesn't help Moscow at all. The situation in Chechnya can't cope with delaying tactics and Moscow has to find solutions, not just postpone making them."

Khasmagomadov said that in the long run Moscow had no option but to continue the policy of "Chechenization" begun under Kadyrov. "Otherwise it will simply be impossible to halt the rise in separatist feelings," he said.

Timur Aliev is IWPR's coordinator for Chechnya.