Moldova’s High Stakes Elections

Welcome to IWPR’s Frontline Update, your go-to source to hear from journalists and local voices at the front lines of conflict.

 THE BIG PICTURE  

This weekend, Moldova will make a choice about whether to continue on the path of European integration or opt for closer relations with Russia.  

In the contexts of the war in Ukraine, and overall tensions between Russia and the West, the voting on October 20, which includes both a presidential election and a constitutional referendum, will determine the future of this small but critical frontline state.

Moldova has already been granted candidate status for EU membership. But it has long been vulnerable to Moscow’s influence, with 1,500 Russian soldiers stationed in its breakaway region of Transnistria, a situation which has been frozen for 30 years ago. While surveys show that most Moldovans support the country’s pro-EU trajectory, intense disinformation campaigns largely fuelled by Russia have focused on discouraging people from turning out to vote.

 VOICES FROM THE FRONTLINE 

“The pro-Russian parties don't need necessarily to win outright to disrupt the reform plans,” noted IWPR Moldova media expert Tatiana Piui this week. “They just need to get enough support to prevent a strong pro-European majority.” 

Mihai Mogâldea, deputy director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms, a Chișinău-based think tank, said that a similar tactic applied to the referendum, which will only be valid if at least a third of the electorate takes part.

"Polls show that about a third of respondents do not intend to participate in the referendum,” he told IWPR this week. “Given that the turnout rate in the first round of the 2020 presidential elections was 48 per cent, if a third of this electorate does not participate in the referendum, the risk of invalidating it is real.”

 WHY IT MATTERS 

The stakes could not be higher. Moldova is a small country of only 2.6 million. But its geopolitical significance – sandwiched between EU member state Romania and Ukraine – means the outcome of these votes will have far-reaching impact.

It was the debate over Ukraine’s European orientation a decade ago that led to major demonstrations and the start of Russia’s invasion, building to the full-scale war now under way.

The Republic of Georgia is holding critical parliamentary elections a week later, and Tbilisi will be watching the results especially closely.

As with many countries in the post-Soviet region, Moldova has faced sustained effort by Moscow and pro-Russian oligarchs to undermine the country’s democratic reforms.

IWPR is collaborating with ten local NGOs supporting efforts across the country to inform Moldovans about their choices, to combat malign information interference and to encourage political participation in this crucial vote.

 THE BOTTOM LINE 

The citizens of Moldova need to be able to make their own choices about their own future, in an information landscape free of malign interference.

IWPR has been active in Moldova since 2018, strengthening professional journalism, supporting human rights advocacy and empowering women’s civic voices.  With funding from Norway, we are supporting civil society groups to combat malign influence operations. These efforts build on the continuing success of IWPR's flagship work in Moldova, supported by the UK, which is providing training and resources and established the Independent Countering Disinformation Centre in Chișinău.

IWPR’s mission is to build confidence in information through responsible local media and civil society so that the population can express its legitimate will. This weekend, the people of Moldova, and the entire region, will be watching closely.