President Strips Son-in-Law of Powers

The Kazak president’s son in law Rahat Aliev has been stripped of his diplomatic post after being charged in connection with a kidnapping case. Aliev has vowed to stay in politics, but NBCentralAsia experts say his chances of regaining significant power are slim.



On May 26, President Nursultan Nazarbaev sacked Aliev as ambassador to Austria and special envoy to the Vienna-based Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCE. Aliev is the husband of the president’s elder daughter Dariga Nazarbaeva, a prominent figure in politics and the media.



In a statement on the same day, Aliev said things had started to go wrong for him after he told Nazarbaev privately that he was planning to stand in the next presidential election scheduled for 2012.



He said he will “always be in politics”, and the future is up to his supporters, of whom “there are many”.



Aliev has come under heavy fire over the last week. On May 23, Kazakhstan's interior ministry announced that charges have been filed against him in connection with the kidnapping and assault of two senior figures in Nurbank, of which Aliev is a major shareholder. Abilmajen Gilimov, a former chairman of the bank, and his deputy Joldas Timraliev, disappeared in January 2007.



On May 24, the interior ministry also suspended Aliev’s KTK television channel for a three-month period, accusing it of breaching state laws which require media outlets to ensure a certain proportion of their coverage is in the Kazak language. His newspaper Karavan was also suspended, for unspecified reasons.



NBCentralAsia observers say Aliev’s political career is in tatters, and he will be unable to climb back to a position of power.



“Rahat Aliev has a fairly wide space for maneouvre,” said NBCentralAsia analyst Eduard Poletaev. “However, it seems his political career is at an end. Even if he finds an opportunity to make the right move, it will not be enough to get him out of this situation without significant damage.”



Aliev will find influencing public opinion a real struggle now that his media outlets have been closed, added Poletaev.



The last crisis in Aliev’s career was in November 2001, when he was removed as first deputy head of the Committee for National Security and appointed ambassador to Austria.



NBCentralAsia experts agree that Aliev’s political future now lies in the president’s hands, although Dariga Nazarbaeva may be able to intercede on his behalf.



“It is now very hard to say Aliev has a political future,” said human rights activist Yevgeny Zhovtis. “Unless the president changes his mind for some reason, for example, because of the family connection, Aliev’s political future looks franky unenviable.”



The case is also important for Nazarbaev’s own image. As Zhovtis put it, having a close relative accused of a criminal offence could taint the president’s reputation. On the other hand, demonstrating that no one is above the law could boost people’s faith in him.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)