Harvest Targets Won't Ease Grain Shortage

Even though the Turkmen authorities have said farmers must increase next year’s grain harvest by a third, NBCentralAsia observers say most of the crop will only be fit for animal feed and the country will still have to import wheat.



On July 28, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov signed a new decree ordering Turkmengallaonumleri, the state grain company, to ensure it obtains 1.6 million tons of grain next year. The area planted with grain will be expanded by 100,000 hectares to bring it up to 880,000 hectares.



According to official sources, this year’s grain harvest was 1.2 million tons, far less than the somewhat unrealistic figure of close to three million tons claimed last year, when the late Saparmurat Niazov was still president.



Before Niazov died last December, he ordered a 300,000 to 400,000 ton production increase every year in an effort to reach his ultimate target of four million tons of grain.



Last year, state inspections revealed that farmers were planting less than half of the planned area with wheat, and some regional governors who were found to be exaggerating output figures were sacked and arrested.



Berdymuhammedov, who was inaugurated as Niazov’s successor in February, has declared war on the practice of reporting fictitious output results, and has increased the price that farmers are paid for their grain.



An NBCentralAsia economic observer says that by setting the 2008 target higher than this year’s output, the new government may be trying to assess what the maximum harvest could realistically be.



However, the 1.6 million ton target is likely to be unattainable, he said, as it implies yields of two tons per hectare, which would place Turkmenistan on a par with established grain exporters like Kazakhstan and Russia.



The hard wheat strains best suited for human consumption do not do well in Turkmenistan’s arid conditions, and much of what is produced goes for animal fodder. The shortfall is imported from Kazakstan and Russia.



Other commentators say Turkmenistan continues to have little option but to import enough to meet its needs, even at a time when world grain prices are high.



“If the authorities want to avoid a shortage of flour and other grain products, they will definitely find the money to buy extra grain by canceling two or three grandiose construction projects,” said one observer.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)