Nazarbaev Keeps Plan for Central Asian Unity Alive
Nazarbaev Keeps Plan for Central Asian Unity Alive
Although the Kazak president is still pushing for a union between the five Central Asian countries, NBCentralAsia analysts say that even plans for more economic integration could fail because of the ambitions of each national leadership, and a common fear that Kazakstan would dominate the others.
Last week, President Nursultan Nazarbaev said a Central Asian union was an idea made in heaven, given that the region has 55 million people and enough resources to make it self-sufficient.
When Nazarbaev came up with the proposal back in February 2005, the idea was that its focus would be primarily economic. But now he has expanded on the concept, saying the union could have a structure similar to the European Union.
NBCentralAsia observers say that although the initiative may be attractive from an economic point of view, it will be a long time before it happens.
Kazakstan-based political scientist Oleg Sidorov said Nazarbaev would like to take the lead in the region, so the other four Central Asian leaders, notably Uzbek president Islam Karimov, are unlikely to back his proposed union.
The fiercest competition for leadership in Central Asia has historically been between Uzbekistan, which has about half the region’s total population, and Kazakstan, with the largest territory and the strongest economy.
“Each republic has a lot of ambitions,” said Saifullo Safarov, deputy director of the Tajik president’s Centre for Strategic Studies. “We wanted to unite for economic cooperation, but our attempts failed.”
An NBCentralAsia political observer based in Ashgabat says “ambition and state-centred egotism” is so prevalent in the region that proposals for integration have no future.
But he believes that agreements could work if, for instance, two or three of the republic managed to build common markets in cotton, grain and energy, and regional agencies to manage and coordinate this process began to emerge.
Bazarbay Mambetov, from Kyrgyzstan, was an expert advisor involved in setting up the Central Asian Cooperation Organisation back in 2002, a grouping which merged with the wider Eurasian Economic Community, Eurasec, in 2004. He too believes the first step towards unification could be establishing common economic rules and agreements which Central Asian states would abide by in trading with countries outside the region.
However, Sidorov doubts even that would work. Apart from Kazakstan, the state of the other economies “leave a lot to be desired”, he said. In addition, many regional issues are already being tackled within the framework of larger groupings like Eurasec and the Shanghai Cooperation Organiation, which also includes Russia and China.
“For the republics in the region, it is more in their interests to deal one another on a bilateral basis or within the framework of existing associations. It doesn’t make sense to set up a new [organisation] that does not include Russia or China,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
Last week, President Nursultan Nazarbaev said a Central Asian union was an idea made in heaven, given that the region has 55 million people and enough resources to make it self-sufficient.
When Nazarbaev came up with the proposal back in February 2005, the idea was that its focus would be primarily economic. But now he has expanded on the concept, saying the union could have a structure similar to the European Union.
NBCentralAsia observers say that although the initiative may be attractive from an economic point of view, it will be a long time before it happens.
Kazakstan-based political scientist Oleg Sidorov said Nazarbaev would like to take the lead in the region, so the other four Central Asian leaders, notably Uzbek president Islam Karimov, are unlikely to back his proposed union.
The fiercest competition for leadership in Central Asia has historically been between Uzbekistan, which has about half the region’s total population, and Kazakstan, with the largest territory and the strongest economy.
“Each republic has a lot of ambitions,” said Saifullo Safarov, deputy director of the Tajik president’s Centre for Strategic Studies. “We wanted to unite for economic cooperation, but our attempts failed.”
An NBCentralAsia political observer based in Ashgabat says “ambition and state-centred egotism” is so prevalent in the region that proposals for integration have no future.
But he believes that agreements could work if, for instance, two or three of the republic managed to build common markets in cotton, grain and energy, and regional agencies to manage and coordinate this process began to emerge.
Bazarbay Mambetov, from Kyrgyzstan, was an expert advisor involved in setting up the Central Asian Cooperation Organisation back in 2002, a grouping which merged with the wider Eurasian Economic Community, Eurasec, in 2004. He too believes the first step towards unification could be establishing common economic rules and agreements which Central Asian states would abide by in trading with countries outside the region.
However, Sidorov doubts even that would work. Apart from Kazakstan, the state of the other economies “leave a lot to be desired”, he said. In addition, many regional issues are already being tackled within the framework of larger groupings like Eurasec and the Shanghai Cooperation Organiation, which also includes Russia and China.
“For the republics in the region, it is more in their interests to deal one another on a bilateral basis or within the framework of existing associations. It doesn’t make sense to set up a new [organisation] that does not include Russia or China,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
