More Kazak Parties Form Coalitions

Two more political parties in Kazakhstan have forged a coalition ahead of constitutional amendments to strengthen parliament’s powers. Although hopes are rising that the country will be governed by a multi-party parliament, NBCentralAsia observers say the ruling Nur Otan party remains as dominant as ever.



On April 1, leaders of the social democratic Auil (Village) party and the Party of Patriots of Kazakstan announced they were creating a bloc to give them a better chance of being elected in local council elections. The bloc will be called Birlik (Unity).



Auil is popular in the countryside and has around 200,000 members, while support for the Party of Patriots is concentrated in urban areas.The new bloc has around 370,000 members and its election campaign will be founded on environmental security concerns.



NBCentralAsia observers say Birlik is ready to accept other parties, and may survive beyond the local election to contest the 2009 parliamentary election.



That election is expected to be held after constitutional changes have been made giving parliament – and the parties represented in it – more power. In anticipation of this, political parties have already become more active. On March 26, for example, the Communist Party of Kazakstan and the Communist People’s Party of Kazakstan merged after a three-year split.



NBCentralAsia observers doubt Birlik will pose a threat to the Nur Otan party, which holds nearly all the seats in parliament and has over 900,000 members since it incorporated the Asar, Civil and Agrarian parties over the past six months.



“Of course Birlik won’t have any influence on politics,” said political observer Farhad Kasenov. “I can’t say they will fundamentally change the face of the Majilis [lower house of parliament], either. The Majilis will stay just the way it is.”



Political scientist Aydos Sarimov believes the bloc only has the potential to rob other parties of two per cent of the vote at best.



“Both [Auil and Patriots] parties are pro-presidential in outlook, and both of them have some public support. So their sponsors are probably tired of backing two identical groups that don’t actually generate significant political dividends,” said Sarimov.



Another analyst, Daur Dosybiev, noted that the prospect of constitutional reform had given political parties a real incentive to merge. However, Birlik is the first bloc made up of two parties that do not share the same ideology.



“The Communists are united by a common ideology, but in Birlik’s case it looks like someone told them to get together – there’s nothing in common between a party that promotes the interests of peasants and one that appeals to patriots. This manouevring is probably related to the coming constitutional amendments,” he said.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)