Russian Ban on Traders to Squeeze Uzbek Labour Market

New migration legislation in Russia is likely to force many Uzbeks to leave the country, so the Tashkent government will need to make contingency plans to deal with the extra labour force, commentators say.



Under Russia’s new migration legislation, foreign nationals must account for no more than 40 per cent of all market traders by April, and after that they will be banned from working at markets altogether.



Some estimates put the number of labour migrants from Uzbekistan at 2.5 million in Russia alone. Many of them work at markets there. The figure includes seasonal migrants.



The Uzbek government has not yet commented on the Russian regulations.



Observers interviewed by NBCentralAsia believe some of the Uzbeks will be forced to go home, and argue that urgent measures are needed to contain unemployment and rising discontent.



Political scientist Ahmadjon Mirzaev says the Russian legislation will have the immediate effect of increasing unemployment in Uzbekistan, so the government there needs to be ready to cope with the problem and also with the possibility of social tensions.



“The government will need to think carefully about how it can create employment and avoid [unpleasant] consequences,” said Mirzaev. “This might be achieved by… revitalising factories that are currently moribund.”



Another commentator, a human rights activist from the Fergana valley, warned that the return of migrants en masse could lead to instability. Another major effect will be the financial cost to the economy – assuming that one million migrants each currently send 200 US dollars to their families every month, the net gain works out as 2.4 billion dollars a year, a figure that could be slashed if many workers return home, the activist said.



However, another analyst, Said Jalilov, pointed out that the returning migrants include many professionals whose return would benefit Uzbekistan.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)