Kazakstan Seeks Regional Leadership Role

Kazakstan's president Nursultan Nazarbaev has announced plans for a new regional strategy, which analysts say could allow this country – with its substantial diplomatic and commercial power – to position itself as the leading country in Central Asia.



In a speech to mark the 15th anniversary of Kazak independence on December 16, President Nazarbaev unveiled plans for a long-term strategy designed to make Central Asia more creditworthy and competitive, and to help the region fight common threats such as drug trafficking, the proliferation of illicit weapons, and illegal migration.



Andrei Chebotarev, head of the Alternativa think tank, believes the Central Asian strategy stems from Kazakstan’s desire to promote itself in the region, and comes at a time when many things are in the country’s favour – its leading role in the Commonwealth of Independents States, its bid to chair the OSCE in 2009, and its ability to serve as mediator between western states and other Central Asian republics.



“We’re now seeing Central Asian states becoming distanced from the United States, the European Union and NATO. Last year, Uzbekistan broke off relations with various institutions after Andijan. Kyrgyzstan has some problems with the US government over the airbase located there,” said Chebotarev. “Kazakstan can certainly become the West’s leading partner in the region.”



NBCentralAsia political scientist Eduard Poletaev, editor-in-chief of the Mir Yevrazii journal, believes Nazarbaev is seeking undisputed leadership in the region at a time when the EU is increasingly interested in Central Asia and Kazakstan is seeking the OSCE chairmanship.



“Another aspect of the strategy is to identify and avert political and economic risks that may arise if neighbouring republics go through a leadership change.”



Poletaev believes Kazakstan has been making some bold investments in other Central Asian states to give itself the commercial power and diplomatic capacity to develop and lead a long-term strategy for regional development.



“Thanks to its financial and political influence, Kazakstan will draw other Central Asian states into its orbit,” he said. “Only Kazakstan, with its investments, has the economic clout to ensure stability in the region.”



NBCentralAsia political scientists say it is no accident that the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, CICA, has been made the centrepiece of the future strategy. Decisions taken by this regional grouping are not binding, so CICA will serve merely as a forum in which the strategy can be implemented.



“Only a vaguely-delineated structure like this will be able to bring together the various political ambitions [of Central Asian states] and get them to negotiate,” said Poletaev.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)