Opposition Promises Big Protest

Opposition protests planned for next week in major cities of Uzbekistan are unlikely to live up to expectations in the face of security service intervention and the public’s lack of political awareness.



On February 22, the Birdamlik, or Solidarity, movement announced plans to organise peaceful demonstrations in nine major cities in Uzbekistan on International Women’s Day, March 8, to protest against the detention of three female human rights activists.



Birdamlik is a non-government human rights movement with opposition leanings registered in the United States and headed by political emigre Bahodyr Choriev.



A statement issued by the group said, “The rallies will call for the release of human rights activists Mutabar Tajibaeva, Gulbahor Turaeva and Umida Niazova, currently held in prisons or pre-trial detention. We will ask the government to pay more attention to the plight of women on low incomes.”



Tajibaeva, who openly criticised the government after the Andijon violence of May 2005 was arrested in October the same year and sentenced to eight years in prison the following March. Turaeva and Umida Niazova were both arrested in January this year.



NBCentralAsia observers say Birdamlik may have undermined its chances of success by alerting local authorities around Uzbekistan, giving them time to take precautionary measures.



“It used to be possible to hold a demonstration for a certain period of time by law, but things are different now,” said an NBCentralAsia observer based in Bukhara. “The authorities now react with harsher measures, and any protest announced in advance is doomed to failure.”



An NBCentralAsia political commentator based in Tashkent also voiced scepticism that Birdamlik would be able to mount a large-scale protest.



“The security agencies will try to prevent the protests from taking place. They have well-tried methods ranging from persuasion to preventing protesters from leaving home,” he said.



Others analysts believe the protest may fall flat because it will be poorly attended, given the public’s lack of political awareness.



Another Uzbekistan-based analyst said the prevailing “information vacuum” meant that people were generally unaware of who the arrested women are.



“Despite the potential for protests to take place, people are unlikely to take part and risk their lives merely for an idea, if they have no personal interest in the matter,” said the analyst.



But the Tashkent-based observer thinks that “even the lack of a result will be a sort of result” for the protest organisers, who will be able to claim the Uzbek authorities blocked their action.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)