Azerbaijan: Ilham Tightens His Grip

Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliev has boldly asserted his authority by sacking his minister of national security, a key figure from the presidency of Aliev’s father.

No reasons were given in the decree removing Colonel General Namik Abbasov on July 23, but analysts say that Aliev wanted to get rid of a potential rival and to continue clearing out the old guard that served his father, Heydar Aliev.

Abbasov was replaced by Eldar Mahmudov, a police colonel with the reputation as a tough boss and former head of the anti-drugs department, although critics say he lacks the experience for the high-profile new job.

With 10 years in the post, Abbasov was one of the mainstays of Aliev senior’s regime. Both were veterans of the KGB and in 1994 – in the wake of a coup attempt against Aliev – Abbasov was named head of the Azerbaijani successor to the once feared security service.

Abbasov was popular within the ministry and was credited with helping to avert several coup and assassination attempts against Heydar Aliev.

But he may have been too popular for the new president’s liking. When it became obvious that Heydar Aliev was seriously ill and that a change of power was imminent, numerous analysts in the press flagged the idea of Abbasov – not the largely untested son Ilham – taking over.

Worried about stability in the oil-rich, ex-Soviet republic, Abbasov was seen by some as a local version of Russia’s Vladimir Putin – an ex-KGB officer who could ensure stability, said political analyst Rasim Musabekov.

Even with Ilham Aliyev’s takeover last year in what international observers said were flawed elections, Abassov retained influence. This brought him into conflict with some of the new president’s entourage and may have been what led to his downfall.

"People from Ilham Aliyev's entourage were in quite strained relations with Namik Abbasov," Musabekov said.

These internal tensions, said another analyst, also reflect clannish loyalties within the country’s elite. Abbasov is from the Ordubad district of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic and was believed to head the so-called Ordubad grouping within the government. His successor, Mahmudov, comes from the Sharur district of Nakhichevan. The Sharur grouping is thought to be led by Ramiz Mehdiyev, an influential figure who heads the presidential administration.

Mahmudov is said to be especially trusted by the president, but many have raised questions over his professional credentials for the post.

The appointment “can be regarded as nonsense”, said Isakhan Ashurov, former head of police in the Gazakh district. "It is for the first time that an internal affairs ministry representative will head security organs in Azerbaijan. Things have been the other way up to now: representatives of the special services were appointed to head the police."

Officers of the national security ministry told IWPR on condition of anonymity that they had little respect for the police force, reflecting a rivalry that goes back to Soviet days. Compared to the more disciplined secret services, the interior ministry is widely regarded as corrupt and more likely to act outside of the law.

"The appointment of a police representative as head of the ministry of national security will not be taken well in the special services," Sulhaddin Akper, former first deputy minister of national security, told IWPR.

"The security staffers will have a negative attitude toward Eldar Mahmudov," former policeman Isakhan Ashurov confirmed.

The change has also been greeted with scepticism among opposition circles, which saw Abbasov as holding relatively liberal views. "He was on friendly terms with the press, he has not made denunciatory speeches against the opposition, he was not inclined toward tough actions, and had not participated in the authorities' harsh punitive operations," one analyst said.

Following a violent crackdown on anti-Aliev demonstrations last year, Abbasov also refused to endorse the theory put by some in government that the disorder was orchestrated by western special services.

"Namik Abbasov has worked in the system of the ministry of national security for a long time and has not been involved in corruption. I know him as a professional cadre of special services. It is a pity that he was removed from his post, especially as this was done without any explanations," Gasan Kerimov, deputy chairman of the Popular Front party.

Shahin Najafov, secretary of the Democratic Party, was also critical. "Azerbaijan is in a state of war with Armenia. Representatives of special services of different countries of the world are active here. This is why the appointment of a police colonel to the system of the ministry of national security is, to put it mildly, unexpected."

Analysts said that Aliev is more interesting in securing personal loyalty than professionalism during the continuing transition period.

"There is uncertainty in this country now. Heydar Aliyev has gone and attempts of independent actions on the part of different groupings within the ruling elite have started. This is why it is not ruled out that, among others, the appointment of the tough Eldar Mahmudov is an attempt by Ilham Aliyev to secure himself against possible destabilisation," another analyst told IWPR.

"Whatever the reasons for this might be, what has happened confirms the president's intention to carry out a serious reorganisation of his team," analysts at Turan News Agency wrote.

The question on everyone’s lips now is: who is next?

Maqsud Kerimov is the pseudonym of an Azerbaijani.