Afghan Instability Threatens Central Asia, Experts Say

Central Asian analysts are warning that instability in Afghanistan leaves their own region vulnerable. They argue that the risks to Central Asian states could be mitigated by shifting the focus away from humanitarian aid and increasing troop numbers in Afghanistan and towards addressing the economic problems facing the country.



At a December 11-12 conference held in Dushanbe, called "Afghanistan and regional security five years after the Taleban”, participants discussed the impact that developments in the country are having on the Central Asian states. The general conclusion was that the United States and its allies are losing the war in Afghanistan and the situation is getting worse.



That view offers little comfort for Afghanistan’s neighbours.



Aleksandr Knyazev, a political scientist and professor at the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, sketched out three main areas in which the Afghan situation is a threat to its near neighbours – the availability of large amounts of drugs, religious extremism taking root across a wide geographical area, and the possibility of refugee flows.



Participants said the only feasible way to get out of this prolonged crisis was to address the underlying economic problems that drive the violence.



“Grinding poverty creates the conditions in which people drift towards the Taleban, as a way of protesting against the absence of positive developments,” said Hazrat Wahriz, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies in Kabul.



Other analysts said the strategy of suppressing resistance by military means was proving ineffective, and they prescribed other kinds of solutions.



“If the Americans wish to improve the situation, they should increase not troop numbers, but financial assistance for the economy of this long-suffering state,” Viktor Korgun of Russia’s Institute for Oriental Studies told NBCentralAsia.



As a practical recommendation, Knyazev recalled the 1920s, when the Soviet authorities encouraged economic cooperation after growing tired of combating Afghan incursions across their frontier. This had the positive effect of giving people an incentive to trade rather than wage war.



In present day, such a policy would translate into encouraging cooperation between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. “Since 2002, Tajikistan has been selling electricity to Kunduz province and new bridges have been built [across the river which forms the border]. There’s already a clear vested interest in keeping the power lines and bridges intact. There need to be a lot of small projects of this kind,” said Knyazev.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)