OSCE Sets Deadline for Reforms

Although Kazakstan has been granted one more year to carry out the democratic reforms that could make it eligible to chair the OSCE, analysts tell NBCentralAsia that the political elite lacks the will to institute the major changes that are needed, so the Kazaks’ best hope lies in changing the minds of those governments that oppose their bid.



A meeting of OSCE foreign ministers on December 5 failed to achieve a consensus on whether to let Kazakstan chair the grouping in 2009. Instead of coming out with a definitive answer, they ruled that a final decision would wait until a year from now, when the Kazaks should have set political reforms in motion.



The deal was made possible by the persistence of Kazakstan’s friends in the OSCE, who did their best to overcome an awkward situation in which member-states had divided into two camps.



The United States and Britain argue that Kazakstan’s leaders not yet made the progress needed to take on the OSCE chairmanship, for example in reforming electoral legislation, registering opposition parties and annulling certain amendments made to media laws. Other countries such as Germany and members of the Commonwealth of Independent States believe that despite the criticism, Kazakstan deserves a chance to prove it is worthy.



Amirjan Kosanov, an opposition politician in Kazakstan, said the authorities still had an opportunity to demonstrate their democratic credentials. Even the opposition would support their bid as long as the authorities set specific deadlines for implementing democratic change, he said.



Nevertheless, like other commentators interviewed by NBCentralAsia, Kosanov thinks the one-year delay to the decision is unlikely to prod the leadership into carrying out the substantive reforms the OSCE wants to see.



“The authorities will more than likely take only half-measures,” he said.



Political scientist Dosym Satpaev doubts the authorities will act on OSCE’s recommendations because these concern sensitive areas where, in his view, “the leadership has actually tightened its control and reduced the space for political activity”.



Opposition journalist Sergei Duvanov predicts that the government will spend the coming year creating the “illusion of reforms” of the political system, creating a pluralist party system and making local government heads elected rather than appointed. In reality, even if more seats in parliament are allocated to political parties through proportional representation, opposition politicians will still be excluded from the political mainstream, he argues.



Instead, Duvanov believes the OSCE’s decision will hinge on whether certain western states are prepared to accept that such reforms amount to true democratisation. “It all depends on whether Europe is prepared to regard [President Nursultan] Nazarbaev’s reforms as genuine,” he said. “If the reforms are deemed to be heading in the direction of democracy, Kazakstan gets the [OSCE] chair. If an honest assessment is made, no one will vote for Kazakstan.”



Satpaev said that Kazakstan will above all have to change minds in the US and Britain. “If we are able to convince these two states that something has been done during this interlude, we will have more of a chance and we may get to chair the OSCE,” he said.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)