Turkmen Gas Still Earmarked for Russia
Turkmen Gas Still Earmarked for Russia
The dispute between Russia and Ukraine over the halting of gas supplies to Europe has rekindled talk of a direct energy link between Turkmenistan and the West.
On January 14, Estonian economy minister Juhan Parts said the best solution for European energy security was the planned Nabucco gas pipeline, which will run from Turkey to Europe, avoiding Russian territory altogether.
The idea is that Nabucco would mainly be filled with natural gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. A second pipeline would need to be laid under the Caspian to bring Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan.
In a written statement, US Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton has also spoken in favour of accelerating the construction of alternative pipeline routes, warning that Europe’s reliance on Russia for energy could be transformed into political dependence.
In Britain, The Times newspaper wrote that the “deep freeze” of 2009 showed the need to buy gas from Caspian states, while the Trend Capital agency predicted that the new circumstances would prompt Turkmenistan, Central Asia’s main gas producer, to focus seriously on alternative export routes.
Turkmenistan produces about 80 billion cubic metres of gas a year, 20 billion of which is used for domestic consumption and the rest exported. Russia, a major exporter of hydrocarbons to Europe, buys about 50 billion cu m of Turkmen gas a year under the terms of a 25-year contract and exports it together with its own gas through pipelines that pass through Ukraine and Belarus. It sells 120 billion cu m to western countries annually.
Russian exports were interrupted on January 7, due to a dispute over prices with Ukraine, which is both a consumer and a transit country.
“It is clear that this alarmed the West, which would like to approach Ashgabat directly without going through Moscow but does not know how to do this,” said an observer in Ashgabat.
NBCentral Asia commentators are sceptical that a direct supply link between Turkmenistan and Europe will appear any time soon.
“What can [Turkmen president Gurbanguly] Berdymuhammedov propose?” asked one of NBCentralAsia’s analysts. “Turkmenistan has no [pipeline] infrastructure of its own, and all of its gas is transported through Russian pipelines. So this is not going to get beyond the discussion stage.”
Rovshan Ibrahimov, head of the international relations department at Gafgaz University in Baku, argues that Turkmenistan is quite happy with its current arrangement with Moscow, which has agreed to buy Turkmen gas at 300 US dollars per 1,000 cu m, in line with global prices.
He predicts that Turkmenistan and other regional producers will be reluctant to seek alternatives to the Russian route, given that they “don’t want to harm relations with Russia, they realise they are dependent on it for gas transportation, and remember the unhappy experiences of Georgia and Ukraine”.
Annadurdy Khajiyev, a Turkmen economic analyst based in Bulgaria, agreed, arguing that in any case, Moscow would “not allow” Berdymuhammedov to cut it out of the equation.
He says that while one project to lay a new pipeline along the eastern Caspian shoreline, leading from Turkmenistan northwards through Kazakstan to Russia, would probably start this year, “Nabucco is quite unrealistic”.
(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service is resuming, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)
On January 14, Estonian economy minister Juhan Parts said the best solution for European energy security was the planned Nabucco gas pipeline, which will run from Turkey to Europe, avoiding Russian territory altogether.
The idea is that Nabucco would mainly be filled with natural gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. A second pipeline would need to be laid under the Caspian to bring Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan.
In a written statement, US Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton has also spoken in favour of accelerating the construction of alternative pipeline routes, warning that Europe’s reliance on Russia for energy could be transformed into political dependence.
In Britain, The Times newspaper wrote that the “deep freeze” of 2009 showed the need to buy gas from Caspian states, while the Trend Capital agency predicted that the new circumstances would prompt Turkmenistan, Central Asia’s main gas producer, to focus seriously on alternative export routes.
Turkmenistan produces about 80 billion cubic metres of gas a year, 20 billion of which is used for domestic consumption and the rest exported. Russia, a major exporter of hydrocarbons to Europe, buys about 50 billion cu m of Turkmen gas a year under the terms of a 25-year contract and exports it together with its own gas through pipelines that pass through Ukraine and Belarus. It sells 120 billion cu m to western countries annually.
Russian exports were interrupted on January 7, due to a dispute over prices with Ukraine, which is both a consumer and a transit country.
“It is clear that this alarmed the West, which would like to approach Ashgabat directly without going through Moscow but does not know how to do this,” said an observer in Ashgabat.
NBCentral Asia commentators are sceptical that a direct supply link between Turkmenistan and Europe will appear any time soon.
“What can [Turkmen president Gurbanguly] Berdymuhammedov propose?” asked one of NBCentralAsia’s analysts. “Turkmenistan has no [pipeline] infrastructure of its own, and all of its gas is transported through Russian pipelines. So this is not going to get beyond the discussion stage.”
Rovshan Ibrahimov, head of the international relations department at Gafgaz University in Baku, argues that Turkmenistan is quite happy with its current arrangement with Moscow, which has agreed to buy Turkmen gas at 300 US dollars per 1,000 cu m, in line with global prices.
He predicts that Turkmenistan and other regional producers will be reluctant to seek alternatives to the Russian route, given that they “don’t want to harm relations with Russia, they realise they are dependent on it for gas transportation, and remember the unhappy experiences of Georgia and Ukraine”.
Annadurdy Khajiyev, a Turkmen economic analyst based in Bulgaria, agreed, arguing that in any case, Moscow would “not allow” Berdymuhammedov to cut it out of the equation.
He says that while one project to lay a new pipeline along the eastern Caspian shoreline, leading from Turkmenistan northwards through Kazakstan to Russia, would probably start this year, “Nabucco is quite unrealistic”.
(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service is resuming, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)
