Can Bakiev Do Deal with Opposition?
Can Bakiev Do Deal with Opposition?
NBCentralAsia analysts doubt a forthcoming summit meeting between Kyrgyzstan’s president and the opposition will bear any fruit. Instead, they believe the stand-off could just get worse.
The authorities were due to meet their political opponents on October 21 for a round-table discussion of the opposition’s demands, which it was hoped would lead to some kind of common understanding. Some observers even believed that if the talks were a success, the opposition would call off an open-ended demonstration planned for November 2, where participants are likely to call for President Kurmanbek Bakiev’s resignation.
However, the talks never took place. The opposition Movement for Reforms blamed President Bakiev for changing the invitation list at the last minute. The original configuration of the government team was Bakiev, the head of his administration, the prime minister and the state secretary. But it later became clear that the head of the Supreme Court and some other political and public figures were also to take part. The opposition was angered by the change and refused to talk part in the meeting.
“We realised that the president wanted to turn the negotiations into an argument in which he played the role of observer. That would have turned the meeting into a fruitless discussion, and our demands would not have been dealt with,” said Melis Eshimkanov, one of the leaders of the Movement for Reforms, told NBCentralAsia.
NBCentralAsia has learned that a second attempt to set up a dialogue between opposition and government will probably take place on October 28, when the president returns from a trip to southern Kyrgyzstan. Bakiev is due to address parliament on October 30, and political analysts believe he might use this to make his approach public. That means he needs to ensure that any negotiations take place before that date.
Political scientist Tamerlan Ibraimov believes that right now, the opposition has the advantage when it comes to taking the initiative: it has set out its demands for reform clearly, and it has become more cohesive and resolute. Therefore, says, Ibraimov, the November 2 rally is now inevitable.
The opposition is demanding rapid constitutional reform, a new coalition government, transformation of the state broadcaster into a public television service, and the resignations of the Kyrgyz prosecutor general and the Bishkek police chief.
Aside from these demands, the factor that really unites the opposition is its desire for President Bakiev to step down. According to Ibraimov, the opposition is “united by protest – everyone shares an equal dislike of the current authorities”.
Political scientist Valentin Bogatyrev believes the failure of negotiations to date is an indication that neither side truly wants to reach agreement.
He predicts that the situation will now deteriorate, with the opposition making serious plans for November 2, including civil disobedience.
“I can’t see the authorities having the strength to stand up to an opposition rally attended by thousands of people,” he warned. “Things could escalate as far as armed clashes, especially in southern Kyrgyzstan where there are still pro-Bakiev forces that could act as a bloc.”
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
The authorities were due to meet their political opponents on October 21 for a round-table discussion of the opposition’s demands, which it was hoped would lead to some kind of common understanding. Some observers even believed that if the talks were a success, the opposition would call off an open-ended demonstration planned for November 2, where participants are likely to call for President Kurmanbek Bakiev’s resignation.
However, the talks never took place. The opposition Movement for Reforms blamed President Bakiev for changing the invitation list at the last minute. The original configuration of the government team was Bakiev, the head of his administration, the prime minister and the state secretary. But it later became clear that the head of the Supreme Court and some other political and public figures were also to take part. The opposition was angered by the change and refused to talk part in the meeting.
“We realised that the president wanted to turn the negotiations into an argument in which he played the role of observer. That would have turned the meeting into a fruitless discussion, and our demands would not have been dealt with,” said Melis Eshimkanov, one of the leaders of the Movement for Reforms, told NBCentralAsia.
NBCentralAsia has learned that a second attempt to set up a dialogue between opposition and government will probably take place on October 28, when the president returns from a trip to southern Kyrgyzstan. Bakiev is due to address parliament on October 30, and political analysts believe he might use this to make his approach public. That means he needs to ensure that any negotiations take place before that date.
Political scientist Tamerlan Ibraimov believes that right now, the opposition has the advantage when it comes to taking the initiative: it has set out its demands for reform clearly, and it has become more cohesive and resolute. Therefore, says, Ibraimov, the November 2 rally is now inevitable.
The opposition is demanding rapid constitutional reform, a new coalition government, transformation of the state broadcaster into a public television service, and the resignations of the Kyrgyz prosecutor general and the Bishkek police chief.
Aside from these demands, the factor that really unites the opposition is its desire for President Bakiev to step down. According to Ibraimov, the opposition is “united by protest – everyone shares an equal dislike of the current authorities”.
Political scientist Valentin Bogatyrev believes the failure of negotiations to date is an indication that neither side truly wants to reach agreement.
He predicts that the situation will now deteriorate, with the opposition making serious plans for November 2, including civil disobedience.
“I can’t see the authorities having the strength to stand up to an opposition rally attended by thousands of people,” he warned. “Things could escalate as far as armed clashes, especially in southern Kyrgyzstan where there are still pro-Bakiev forces that could act as a bloc.”
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
