Dreams of Landslide Unlikely for President's Party

As Kyrgyzstan braces for parliamentary polls this month, political observers have been quick to draw parallels between the likely winner, Ak Jol, and two other political steamrollers in the region – Nur Otan of Kazakstan and United Russia.



But while all three are seen as parties of their countries’ respective presidents, seasoned observers say the useful comparisons stop there. Thus, Ak Jol will probably gain more seats in the Kyrgyz parliament than any of its rivals, but it will not be able to repeat the landslide successes the other two parties have enjoyed.



Comparisons with United Russia and Nur Otan were quick to emerge after President Kurmanbek Bakiev set up Ak Jol up in October.



But while Nur Otan was the only party to make it into the lower house of the Kazakh parliament in August - while United Russia gained a thumping 65 per cent of votes in Russia’s December 2 election - Kyrgyz analysts doubt Ak Jol will win an overwhelming majority of seats after the December 16 Kyrgyz parliamentary elections.



Kyrgyzstan-based political analyst Shaiyr Juraev said that in spite of the apparent similarities shared by the three parties, the Kazak and Russian scenario was unlikely to work in Kyrgyzstan because of significant differences in resources.



“The parallels are obvious, as these parties are pro-presidential and get direct and open support from their [countries’] presidents,” he said.



“But there is a difference in resources – [Kazak president Nursultan] Nazarbaev has powerful ones at his disposal and the ability to use the [positive] economic situation in his political game, but Bakiev does not have such resources.”



“Ak Jol will not be able to become a version of Nur Otan,” Juraev continued. “Nur Otan has 100 per cent of seats in the Kazakh parliament. Such a situation is most unlikely in Kyrgyzstan.”



Nur Omarov, another Kyrgyz political analyst, said Ak Jol had neither the political and ideological resources, nor a sufficiently long and successful track-record, to gain an absolute majority of votes.



Under the proportional representation system envisaged by the new constitution which was passed by referendum in October, a party that gets an absolute majority of the 90 seats in parliament wins the right to form a government. Until now, governments have been appointed by the Kyrgyz president.



Omarov noted that Nur Otan had been in existence since 1998 and was based on a strict vertical power structure inherited from the Soviet communist era. Its power rests also on the enormous personal authority of the Kazak president, which increases its position and profile.



In recent years, Kazakstan has enjoyed dramatic oil-related growth rates and the biggest flow of foreign investment and the most developed banking sector in Central Asia



None of those circumstances pertain in Kyrgyzstan. Bakiev came to power only two years ago, the economy is in poor shape and Ak Jol emerged only last month.



“Ak Jol does not have all these [advantages] because it is newly formed,” said Omarov. “It takes years for a party to become really popular, and Ak Jol doesn’t have that behind it. Moreover, the president is not seen as the supreme source of power and authority.”



Bakiev came to power in Kyrgyzstan after the March 2005 protests which ousted the then president, Askar Akaev. The revolution was triggered by popular dissatisfaction with the outcome of parliamentary elections.



However, the political instability that has continued since Bakiev’s accession to power has left the president weak by the standards of other Central Asian leaders.



“In the case of Nazarbaev, he is the source of legitimacy for the [Nur Otan] party. It is not clear who is supporting whom in Kyrgyzstan – whether Bakiev supports the party or whether – which is more likely - he is reliant on Ak Jol,” said Juraev.



Bakiev’s recent constitutional reforms, under which parliament will be formed by proportional representation, may help his new party do better in the polls, according to Esen Usubaliev of the Institute for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting in Bishkek.



Usubaliev is cautious about making firm predictions, though. “It is hard to say whether Ak Jol will win some seats or a majority, or indeed whether it has more support than any other party,” he said.



Edil Baisalov, deputy chairman of the Social Democratic Party, said he doubted that Ak Jol enjoyed much bedrock support in society.



“In contrast to Nur Otan and United Russia, Ak Jol has been created right on the eve of elections and is made up of people of diverse classes and profiles,” he said. “It is not clear what ideological programme, line or policy course they have.”



Omurbek Tekebaev, leader of the opposition Ata Meken party, also argues that the pro-presidential party is not a position to win unconditional support from voters.



“If the election is fair and honest, Ak Jol is unlikely to come first,” said Tekebaev. “There are no objective reasons why this party should become popular”.



Andrey Butsman, of the political science department of the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, agreed Ak Jol had done relatively little to appeal to the electorate.



He suggested that if the party did well in the ballot, this would “probably only be because it is the party of power. In any case, that’s how it is positioning itself.”



Gulnara Mambetalieva is an IWPR contributor in Bishkek.