Sparks Fly as Tajiks Endure Power Cuts

It is becoming almost routine for Amina to let her children stay off school. It is around minus 20 on a January morning, and her elder son Intizor has been off sick with a cold for the last week. Today she has decided to keep Intizor’s younger brother Sino and sister Sitora at home as well.

“They go from a cold apartment to a cold school, so they get ill. It’s better if they stay at home wrapped in warm blankets,” said Amina, who has five children in all and lives in a multi-storey apartment block in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan.

Dushanbe, like the rest of the country, has been hit by massive power cuts caused by a combination of exceptionally cold weather, a dip in the electricity supply to the grid, and a legacy of underinvestment in the power industry.

In the capital, the electricity at least still comes on for a few hours a day, but Amina has no way of keeping the flat warm, and nothing to cook on.

She has no relatives with private houses where she could go to share heating and cooking facilities fuelled by firewood or coal, so the family will just have to wait out the winter, which has been exceptionally harsh this year.

Residents of the nine-story block where she lives, 34/1 Gafurov Street, have made fires in the street on which they cook communal meals for everyone in a large cauldron.

Over 500 residents of the block have put their names to a letter to Tajik president Imomali Rahmon saying they have lost all confidence in the management of Barqi Tojik, the state-run power company.

Government agencies have responded to the many complaints made by members of the public by asking people just to hang on until the situation improves.

“They ask us to wait, but I’ve got small children,” said a tearful Amina. “Why don’t officials explain that to my children?”

WIDESPREAD OUTAGES CAUSE MISERY

This winter has been one of the coldest seen in Tajikistan in the last 25 years, with daytime temperatures dipping as low as 22 degrees below zero.

As well as homes, many industrial plants have ground to a halt as their electricity supply is cut. A few key industries have been kept going.

Across Dushanbe, the power supply is being cut off according to a rolling schedule, with most of the outages overnight. Other parts of the country have less than two hours a day when the power is on. The worst hit regions, with about an hour-and-a half of power in the morning and evening, are Sogd in the north and Khatlon in the south, and the group of districts around Dushanbe, which between them account for much of the population.

People living in the more traditional private houses at least have the option of burning firewood or some other fuel, and it is those like Amina who live in apartment blocks wholly dependent on electricity that are worse off.

The centralised heating system which pipes hot water to city residents and business in the large towns is failing because the power stations that feed it are powered by natural gas, which was running low even before recent cuts by Uzbekistan. Their distribution networks are in any case in a poor state of repair.

Many schools are now so cold that teaching has become impossible, but the government has banned them from cancelling classes, apparently out of a reluctance to admit its inability to heat them.

Like Amina, many parents are unwilling to send their children to school.

“I went to the teacher and told her I did not want problems with my children getting kidney disease or tuberculosis because of the cold classrooms,” Dushanbe resident Sohiba Juraeva told IWPR. “Let them stay home and study.”

There have been reports in local media that newborn babies have died in maternity hospitals as a result of power outages. The government has admitted that three children died in maternity hospitals in Dushanbe, but denies this had anything to do with the power cuts.

A doctor who wished to remain anonymous told IWPR of two deaths he was aware of. “During a caesarian operation, the electricity was cut off at the moment when the woman was under anesthetic and on life-support. As a result, she suffered uterine bleeding, and both mother and child died,” said a doctor.

RUMBLINGS OF DISCONTENT COULD GROW LOUDER

There is a widespread perception that Barqi Tojik’s managers failed to anticipate the implications of a cold snap combined with the underlying problems of crumbling infrastructure, seasonal variations in supply, and over-dependence on imports from neighbouring countries that are now facing energy problems themselves.

“We have run out of patience,” said a Dushanbe man who gave his first name as Jumaboy. “It’s impossible to endure shortages of electricity, heating, water and gas year after year. I’d be prepared to starve just to get the president to come out and listen to us.”

Some observers are warning that popular discontent over these issues could spark unrest.

“Private expressions of protests could take a more open and aggressive form,” warned the deputy leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party, Shokirjon Hakimov.

Nuriddin Karshibaev, the head of the National Association of Independent Media, says that what makes things worse is that so little accurate information has been made available. While officials insist that power cuts are limited to nighttime, there are many districts that have no electricity day or night.

“When they conceal what’s really happening from people, and the reasons for it, it heightens the risk of a social explosion, of protest against the government,” said Karshibaev.

POWER COMPANY DEFENDS ITSELF

Barqi Tojik has wheeled out its top managers in a bid to contain the mounting discontent. Its head, Sharifkhon Samiev, appeared at a press-conference on January 22 to say the company was doing everything it could to get the power back on.

Even now, he said, electricity was being diverted to domestic consumers from manufacturers, except for essential ones like bakeries, dairies, and the country’s giant aluminium plant at Tursunzade.

Samiev noted that the increased load on the electricity grid had led to 60 transformer stations burning out.

Meanwhile, Rashid Gulov, the deputy chairman of Barqi Tojik, said the weather was the main culprit.

“The sharp drop in temperature and the unprecedented frosts are the only reason why we are having problems with the electricity supply,” he told IWPR

The cold weather has exacerbated a longer-running crisis that Tajikistan experiences every winter. Its high mountains are home to hydroelectric schemes that generate ample power over the summer, but run low over the winter months.

As Gulov pointed out, reservoir levels are now much lower than they would normally be, because of heavy snowfalls and ice formation. This is especially true at the Nurek dam, home to the country’s largest. hydroelectric plant.

NEIGHBOURS UNABLE TO MAINTAIN POWER SUPPLY

To make up the seasonal shortfall, every winter the Tajiks import electricity from their Central Asian neighbours. However, plunging temperatures have hit Tajikistan’s neighbours, too, creating domestic energy problems and forcing them to reduce or suspend sales of electricity abroad. (See Uzbekistan Sees Rare Protests Over Gas Shortage, RCA No. 528, 25-Jan-08.)

Uzbekistan suspended electricity exports to Tajikistan after January 10; Kyrgyzstan has cut back its supply to Sogd region, and Turkmenistan, too, has reduced the amount of electricity it transmits to the Tajiks.

Meanwhile, on January 24, the Uzbeks cut deliveries of natural gas to Tajikistan as well, complaining of unpaid bills.

MANAGEMENT, NOT WEATHER SEEN AS THE PROBLEM

Energy analysts in Tajikistan tend to agree with the popular perception that the monopolist electricity industry is badly managed, leaving it ill-prepared to cope with variables like unexpected weather conditions.

“There is no doubt that the frosts had an impact on the problems with the electricity, but aside from the power shortage, there is another important problem, which is the lack of good management,” said analyst Rashid Abdullo. “For instance, those who planned the power cuts did not trouble themselves to factor in the social, economic and political consequences.”

For this reason, Abdullo predicts winter disruptions to the power supply in future years, too.

Economist Komiljon Rahimov agrees, saying part of the role of being a competent manager is to anticipate and deal with the unexpected.

“The energy supply situation in our country is a graphic demonstration of weakness and poor standard of management in the sector,” he said.

PATIENCE ALSO IN SHORT SUPPLY

Despite all the accusations leveled at Barqi Tojik, its head Samiev pledged that the current problems would not recur next winter.

“I offer a cast-iron promise that Tajikistan will have no electricity problems in 2009,” he said at the press conference.

However, it will take more than promises to convince the people directly affected by power cuts.

“Every year they promise that there won’t be a crisis. But this is the umpteenth year that winter has come as a surprise to them,” said Ravshanoy, a mother of three in Dushanbe. We suffer, and they don’t care.”

Another resident of the city, Abduali Abdurahmonov, added, “The chairman of Barqi Tojik urges us to be patient and patriotic. But patriotism means upholding the [Tajik] constitution, the human right to lead a normal life, not merely to survive,”

Nafisa Pisarejeva and Mukammal Odinaeva are IWPR contributors in Dushanbe.