Winds of Change in Armenian Politics

Armenia could be on the brink of a major political re-alignment, according to analysts who see signs that the government and the main opposition movement are burying their differences.

On May 26, the Armenian parliament approved an amnesty for around 400 prisoners to mark the 20th anniversary of the country’s independence. The amnesty is expected to include people jailed after engaging in political activity.

“This is of humanitarian as well as political significance. I am sure it will have a positive effect on domestic politics,” speaker Hovik Abrahamyan said. “Our country cannot allow enmity within society, or between opposing political forces. We must create a culture of civilised dialogue.”

The opposition Armenian National Congress, ANC, has demanded fresh elections ever since the disputed presidential polls of 2008, which its leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan lost to Serzh Sargsyan. Mass opposition protests were broken up by police, and about ten people died in the crackdown.

Much of the current tension in Armenia stems from that violent time.

Under the prison release, one of six opposition figures still in jail for calling for revolution has been freed, and another will definitely be released. The fate of the other four remains unclear.

The amnesty followed weeks of media speculation about an apparent rapprochement between the government and the ANC, and the implications if that happened.

“The state we dream of is one where society and state engage in open, public, extended dialogue. This must not finish; the dialogue must be permanent,” Ter-Petrosyan said in an interview to Radio Liberty. “There is a dialogue under way. We have openly presented our demands, obligations and plans to the authorities and to society, and the authorities are openly replying to them.”

Experts say the authorities in Armenia are concerned by the wave of protests that have rocked Arab countries this year, and fear that the opposition might stage something similar. The three main pro-government parties – the Republican Party, Prosperous Armenia and Rule of Law – signed a coalition deal to support Sargsyan in the next presidential election, in what analysts said was a sign of nervousness since the ballot is still two years away.

More impetus to make concessions to the opposition may have come from an interview which US ambassador Marie Yovanovitch gave to Radio Liberty in March, in which she said that Armenian politics needed to change significantly.

“It is important to build a society, to build a government that is open, that is transparent, that is listening to people, that is accountable to the people, and where the people can participate, where there’s a give and take. And we believe those governments in countries are the strongest and make the best partners for the United States,” she said.

Arman Hakobyan, an expert from the Centre for Political Studies, said it was noteworthy that Yovanovitch’s remarks coincided with Ter-Petrosyan’s presentation of his demands.

When Ter-Petrosyan first submitted a list of 15 key demands on March 1, they included the release of all political prisoners, the creation of an international commission to investigate the 2008 crackdown, and the dismissal of Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan and other top officials.

At a protest rally on March 17, however, he significantly softened this position, removing the demand that senior officials be sacked, and insisting only on freedom for political prisoners, permission to hold demonstrations, and a new investigation into the 2008 protests.

On April 20, the authorities announced that such an investigation would take place, and six days later the ANC was allowed to hold a protest on Freedom Square in central Yerevan, for the first time in three years.

These moves have led other political parties to suspect that authorities and the ANC are close to a deal, although neither has confirmed that.

“The ANC and the government have a deal on holding an early parliamentary election. Right now, an early election would be very useful to the ANC,” Ruben Hakobyan, deputy head of the opposition Heritage Party, said.

Vahan Hovhannisyan, who leads the opposition Dashnaktsutyun party in parliament, said ANC’s three demands could easily be met.

“It looks like the ANC formulated demands that would make the government’s job easier,” he said. “The authorities have entered into dialogue with the ANC, but not publicly.”

At the end of April, Prosperous Armenia, one of the parties in the governing coalition, said it would run separately in the next parliamentary election. Robert Kocharyan, the country’s former president, who is closely linked in the media to Prosperous Armenia but rarely makes statements, gave an interview which seemed to reflect concerns that the party might lose its place at the top table.

“If the dialogue relates to establishing civilised rules for the political contest and refraining from radicalising it, then of course I take a positive view of it,” Kocharyan told the Mediamax news agency. “If the dialogue is just about the parameters for a pretend contest for political office, and for the rewards of that, then it looks more like collusion behind voters’ backs.”

Analysts say Kocharyan’s remarks suggest that current political alignments are about to be shaken up.

“Sargsyan’s and Ter-Petrosyan’s teams are taking steps towards each other. There’s no deal, there’s no dialogue, but it is obvious that the actions of these two teams are in harmony,” political commentator Souren Sourenyants said. “It’s clear that in this environment, all the other political groups are trying to display their independence. If the ANC and the authorities find a common language, then a bipolar political system will be created, and the role of other parties will be minimal.”

Armen Poghosyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia.