Warlords Told to Pack Up
Will ordering the north’s two main commanders to give up their private armies really work?
Warlords Told to Pack Up
Will ordering the north’s two main commanders to give up their private armies really work?
People in northern Afghanistan have welcomed the government’s decision to curb two major warlords, but there’s still some way to go before these powerful figures leave the stage.
The transitional government last week ordered two militias commanded by Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Mohammad to be merged and incorporated into the Afghan National Army. The move appeared designed to cut the two men’s links to their main source of power – their private armies – if not remove them as political players altogether.
In recent months forces loyal to General Abdul Rashid Dostum, leader of the Junbesh-e-Milli movement, have clashed with those of Atta Mohammad, a Jamiat-e-Islami faction commander, for control of parts of northern Afghanistan. The prize for both men was control of the regional centre Mazar-e-Sharif, which used to be Dostum’s stronghold but in the past two years has come under his rival’s control.
The fighting has frustrated attempts by the transitional government led by President Hamed Karzai to pacify the north ahead of national elections scheduled for next year.
A ceasefire was put in place last month after the latest outbreak of hostilities, but the truce was an uneasy one.
Now it appears that the government, backed by the West, has run out of patience, and imposed its will on both commanders.
Some people in the north see this as a real step towards a time when brute force will no longer hold sway. “The government’s recent actions were really hopeful, and seem to be the beginning of the end for warlordism in the north,’said Nabi Aseer of the National Front for Democracy, a coalition of 45 Afghan political parties.
“General Dostum and General Atta know that they can’t achieve anything through war any more, so they are trying to gain something by accepting the government’s orders,” said Mazar-e-Sharif resident Mohammad Basir.
Asadullah Afif Bakhteri, a leading Afghan poet, believes central government is finally gaining the upper hand. “The soft approach that the northern commanders displayed in signing up to this agreement demonstrates that they now have some idea of the government’s power,”
Captain Tom Barker, spokesman for the British-led Provincial Reconstruction Team in Mazar-e-Sharif which helped broker the settlement agreed, “In our opinion the latest changes in the north are a positive action by the central government, which has showed its power and authority to the people.”
On the streets of Mazar-e-Sharif, many people would be glad to see the back of Dostum, who has been a powerful figure in Balkh and neighbouring provinces for more than a decade, as well his rival Atta Mohammad.
“They never respected people’s wishes. All they want is power and authority,” said Shah Mohammad, a local shopkeeper.
He suspects that the two men only accepted the agreement after being threatened with military force by the government and its Western backers, “It was the fear of B-52 bombers that made them comply with the government’s orders,” he said.
Since the fall of the Taleban government, the US has occasionally used air strikes to stop fighting between rival factions of what used to be the Northern Alliance – bombing both front lines to drive the message home. The result, says one Western commentator, is that although northern commanders have continued to clash, “the fighting has never escalated into full-scale battles.… The commanders will have taken note.”
Fayaz Mehr Ayeen, head of the cultural union in Balkh province, said the days of such warring commanders are numbered, “If the northern commanders fight again they will lose what they have now,” he said.
The Afghan authorities reportedly plan to recall both Dostum and Atta Mohammad to Kabul, where they will be given posts in government – possibly a ministry each – so that President Karzai can better keep an eye on them.
But it is far from certain that the two men will allow themselves to be neutralised so easily. In May this year Karzai made Dostum – who was already deputy defence minister – his adviser on security and defence, and asked him to relocate to Kabul. The general failed to do so.
Even if the two men do take up new posts in the capital, a Western expert on Afghanistan who asked not to be named doubts that this will be enough to change the dynamics of power in the north. He argues that both Dostum and Atta Mohammad are likely to retain control of their troops beyond any cosmetic restructuring of these forces.
“What difference does moving the leaders to Kabul make?” he told IWPR. “Even if they do move, they still have their people there.”
After the initial acclaim for the government’s bold move, observers of Afghan politics will now be watching to see how the agreement pans out – whether the two generals are shorn of the powers they presently wield, and whether their armed forces are brought to heel.
“This deal is like washing rice in a sieve,” said a taxi driver in Mazar-e-Sharif confided to IWPR. “While it’s still under water you can’t see what you’ve got. Only when you lift it out to drain it do you see all the dirt.”
Qayoum Baabak is an IWPR contributor in Mazar-e-Sharif.
