Uzbek Strongman Tries Softer Approach

The violence in southern Kyrgyzstan seems to have prompted the leader of neighbouring Uzbekistan to try a new tack with his own population. 

In a July 9 decree, President Islam Karimov raised public-sector wages, pensions and benefits for the second time in seven months.

Analysts in Uzbekistan say Karimov announced the pay round partly to offset rising inflation and widespread economic hardship in the country. But he is also keen to maintain calm in the wake of the recent ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan, and may have decided that the carrot is more appropriate than the stick at this sensitive time.

The June clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in and around Osh and Jalalabad, resulting in at least 300 dead and hundreds of thousands driven from their homes, many of which were looted and torched, created a rare sense of solidarity in Uzbekistan, with dissidents and officials alike urging their government to step in and stop the mayhem.

Uzbekistan offered temporary refuge to around 80,000 people fleeing the fighting, but refrained from intervening in the conflict, even at the lowest point when it seemed the authorities in Kyrgyzstan were incapable of restoring law and order.

Some analysts praise Karimov for showing restraint, but note that his caution has come across to many Uzbeks as indecision and weakness – neither of them characteristics he has been noted for in two decades at the helm of the state.

In the words of one local commentator who did not want to be named, Karimov is “now going through the toughest period in the history of his rule”.

Tashpulat Yoldashev, an Uzbek analyst now living in the United States, says the leadership in Tashkent is “anxious about the stance the government took on the tragic events in southern Kyrgyzstan”.

Yoldashev said the government did not speak out about the killing of ethnic Uzbeks, and resorted to its usual practice of banning the state-controlled media from even reporting what was going on in the neighbouring state.

“Many of Karimov’s associates, including security service chiefs, disagreed with this stance,” he added.

Andrei Grozin, director of the Central Asian department at the Commonwealth of Independent States Institute in Moscow, said Karimov’s self-made image as protector of the Uzbek nation had taken a dent.

“That image needs to be brushed up. OK, they didn’t protect the Uzbek minority in southern Kyrgyzstan from being attacked….They need to offer people some kind of carrot in the shape of a pay rise, in order to demonstrate that the Tashkent authorities are as strong as ever,” he said.

Periodic pay increases are not unusual in Uzbekistan, but they are modest and do not keep pace with rising consumer prices and the depreciation of the national currency. Levels still remain low, with the minimum legal wage now 29 dollars a month and pensions starting at 55 dollars.

Orozbek Moldaliev, a political analyst in Kyrgyzstan, says it is nevertheless unusual for pay rises in Uzbekistan to be announced half-way through the year, for accounting reasons.

“That allows one to conclude that this was an enforced measure,” he said. “They’re being forced to do this to reduce tensions, distract people from negative thoughts and assuage unhappiness.”

 This article was produced as part of IWPR’s News Briefing Central Asia output, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.