Uphill Struggle for Iraqi Prime Minister Designate

Mohammed Abdullah has one word to sum up the prospect that Ibrahim al-Jaafari could become prime minister of Iraq again -"catastrophe".



Abdullah, 39-year-old Sunni civil servant in Baghdad, ticks off his long list of complaints about Jaafari's record as head of the interim government: poor security, sectarianism, rising fuel prices, water and electricity shortages. He is disappointed that Jaafari’s name has come up again as the preferred choice of the Shia-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, UIA, which won a majority in December’s election to the first standing Iraqi parliament since Saddam Hussein was ousted in 2003



"Isn't there anyone else?" he sighed.



Like many Iraqis, Abdullah is pessimistic about what the future will hold under another government led by Jaafari.



As head of the Dawa Party, one of the two big Shia players within the UIA, and a politician with close ties to Iran, Jaafari still needs to convince the wider public he can offer real national leadership. In the Iraqi capital, many of the people IWPR spoke to - particularly Sunni Arabs who accuse his Shia-led administration of discriminating against their community - worry that he is incapable of pulling together a country wracked by sectarianism, poverty and war.



The prime minister designate has announced that his priorities will be security, economy and reconstruction. But many Iraqis say that as head of the transitional cabinet since April 2005, he is to blame for the problems that the new government will inherit, including widespread violence, deteriorating public services, rising employment and government corruption.



"The Iraqi people have tested Jaafari, and we’ve had nothing but speeches and empty promises," said Ahmed Adil, a 44-year-old Sunni Arab merchant from Baghdad’s Amiriyah neighbourhood. "Sectarianism, bribery, poor [public] services, jails and torture was all that he offered in his first cabinet. In his second administration, he will split Iraq, and involve the centre and south with Iran."



Jaafari’s nomination is almost certain to be endorsed by the National Assembly, since the UIA holds 130 of the 275 seats there. But he is less certain of winning the two-thirds majority approval he needs for the cabinet list he submits to the legislature, since several parties and blocs have threatened to boycott the government unless it includes opposition voices. If his cabinet does not gain parliamentary approval within the first two weeks that the National Assembly is in session, he will have to stand aside and another candidate will be asked to form a government.



The UIA’s narrow endorsement of Jaafari - he won the slate's re-nomination by just one vote over Iraqi vice-president Adel Abd al-Mahdi - indicated that his political support may be slipping among some of his allies.



A source close to Jaafari's current cabinet, who asked to remain anonymous, said that what Iraq needs is a political figure whom all ethnic and religious constituencies can sign up to. "I don't think the UIA's candidate is able to achieve that, and he can't force other slates to vote for him," said the source.



Some leading politicians have complained that the interim cabinet, which included Kurdish leaders, was nevertheless bent on carrying out a UIA agenda favourable to Shias. An incoming government that behaved in the same way would be a problem, they say.



Kurdish leaders say that they were unable to achieve progress on matters specific to them, such as resolving the position in areas like Kirkuk, where substantial numbers of Kurds deported by Saddam are seeking restitution of their rights.



"Jaafari's previous cabinet performed poorly," said Mahmood Othman, a member of the Kurdistan Alliance. "He didn't [empower] the ministers to make decisions, and only represented the UIA's point of view in the government."



Kurdish politicians, including Iraqi president Jalal Talabani as well as members of the National Assembly, are now playing hardball with the UIA. The Kurdistan Alliance, the second most powerful bloc in parliament, is insisting that the cabinet include opposition voices such as the Iraqi National List led by former prime minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shia.



Jaafari still enjoys support among many Shia voters and politicians. One UIA parliamentarian, Abbas al-Bayati, said the appointment of a new prime minister lies within the alliance’s gift and should not be about personalities.



"We are maintaining a unified and harmonious stand with Jaafari both inside and outside the parliament," said Bayati. "We will back him."



He added that whereas the interim government had to focus on getting a new constitution in place, its successor will have more power and greater diversity, and will be able to concentrate on addressing the needs facing Iraqis.



Some Baghdad residents are prepared to give Jaafari a chance.



"I am satisfied with Jaafari's nomination," said Zuhair Muhammed, a 45-year-old Shia schoolteacher in Baghdad. "The man is clean and his political history honourable."



Some said that Jaafari was not in power long enough to write him off as a poor leader.



Zakiya Khalifa, who heads the non-government group Women’s Renaissance in the capital, said, "He wasn't familiar with government duties and stirred up many problems with other blocs. He should learn from his past mistakes.



“He needs to choose competent ministers who will avoid sectarianism and party quotas, and he must put a stop to the unilateralism that grew up during his time in power."



Political analyst Thair Juma offers a similar prescription for broader-based rule.



"Jaafari will face major challenges during the next four years," he said. "He should compromise by establishing a national and democratic base."



Zaineb Naji is an IWPR trainee journalist in Baghdad.