Russian Tanks Roll into Eastern Ukraine

Yuri Panchenko

Contributor

Tuesday, 22 February, 2022

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Fears of a large-scale conflict are rising after Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops and artillery into Ukraine’s eastern territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, held by Moscow-backed forces, after recognising them as independent.

On February 21, Russian tanks started rolling over the border with Ukraine and crossed into the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) after Putin signed decrees effectively disregarding the two territories as part of Ukraine. Moscow has been backing armed forces in eastern Ukraine for the past eight years in a conflict that has claimed 14,000 lives, including many civilians, and displaced millions.

The Kremlin claimed that the deployment was of “peacekeeping forces” to protect its “allies”, against what it described as Ukraine’s aggression.

"The appearance of Russian troops, directly, and not in the form of their proxies, increases the risks of a full-scale war with Ukraine,” Mikhail Gonchar, president of the Kyiv-based Centre for Global Studies Strategy XXI, told IWPR, adding that the danger would be heightened “if Russian propaganda continues to talk about aggression from Ukraine”.

In an early morning live address to the nation, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky described “a violation of sovereignty” rather than an outright invasion. He called on Europe to introduce sanctions that included a complete stop to Nord Stream 2, the pipeline designed to supply Russian gas into Germany via the Baltic Sea and bypassing Ukraine.

On February 22 German chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a freeze on the pipeline’s certification. Russia’s former prime minister Dmitry Medvedev commented by tweeting, “Welcome to a new world where Europeans will soon pay 2,000 euros for a thousand cubic metres of gas!”

Some Ukrainian political insiders remain sceptical about the impact of economic sanctions.

“Russia’s economy has already adapted to them,” Pavlo Klimkin, who served as foreign minister between 2014 and 2019, told IWPR. “Of course, there will be some new personal sanctions, but they will not have any effect; these people have not had any accounts or real estate in Europe or the USA for a long time.”

“Putin will not leave Ukraine alone.”

Putin’s move followed a meeting of Russia’s security council during which he dismissed any suggestion of further negotiations, and was followed by a long televised speech filled with anger, historical grievances and challenges to the West.

“Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space,” Putin said, adding that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia”.

The decision came less than a week after the State Duma voted through a bill calling on the Russian president to recognise the two statelets. On February 18, the breakaway warned of the threat of a Ukrainian invasion, announced full military mobilisation of all men under 55 and started a massive evacuation of civilians to Russia. Since then, shelling of the Ukrainian military from the non-government-controlled territories has intensified.

In the afternoon of February 22, Putin said that Moscow recognises so-called DPR and LPR on the whole territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Currently, the two regions comprise about a third of the administrative regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and the-facto authorities may look to Moscow to help them wrest control of the remaining areas still under the control of Ukrainian forces. This could lead to open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

In a briefing with journalists in the morning, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had fielded questions about the border line of the newly recognised republics.

End of Agreement

Putin’s decision effectively scuttled the 2014-15 Minsk peace agreements, which, despite remaining largely unfulfilled, have until now been seen by all sides as the best chance for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

Most analyst saw the Duma vote as a bargaining chip, specifically in relation to France and Germany as parties of the negotiating group known as the Normandy Four, alongside Russia and Ukraine.

“The Duma’s vote…was primarily aimed to blackmail the West,” Maria Zolkina, an analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, told IWPR.

Moscow has been pressing Kyiv to hold direct negotiations with the de-facto authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk and amend the Ukrainian constitution to grant them a large degree of autonomy for the two regions. Kyiv, supported by Berlin and Paris, has labelled these demands as unacceptable.

“De facto, having withdrawn from the Minsk Agreement, the Russian Federation has lost an instrument for putting pressure on Ukraine. However, [Moscow] has found a replacement for it, with the help of a permanent threat of a military invasion,” Klimkin commented.

Experts have drawn parallels with Georgia and the Kremlin’s recognition of the two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008.

In 2008 the Kremlin recognised the two regions, out of the control of the central government since the early 1990s, after fighting a short war with Georgia in early August. In the case of Ukraine, this recognition comes after eight years of conflict with Moscow-backed forces. In addition, the Ukrainian army did not respond to provocations from the Russian-backed forces, which would have provided Moscow with an excuse for a large-scale military incursion.

The Russian president’s move also jeopardises the extension of OSCE’s monitoring mission mandate, due to be renewed by March 31. The OSCE’s decisions, including about its missions and field operations, are taken unanimously.

“The presence of the mission also worked as a deterrent to contain ceasefire violations on both sides as per the Minsk agreements,” a former SMM staff member told IWPR on condition of anonymity. “In this new situation, with Russian forces on the ground, Moscow may decide to vote against the extension and avoid having international monitors in the territories it now regards as independent states and allies.”

This is also reminiscent of the experience of Georgia. Sonja Schiffers, director of the Boell Stiftung Foundation in the South Caucasus, noted that in 2008 and 2009 Moscow prevented the extension of the OSCE mission to Georgia and the UN peacekeeping operation (UNOMIG), operating since 1993, arguing there was no basis for them as long as their mandates did not recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. 

Klimkin believes that the fighting along the contact line will not stop and with Russian troops looming over the border and amassing in Crimea, the Ukrainian economy will be hit.

“Putin will not leave Ukraine alone,” Gonchar agreed. “If the scenario of a massive invasion is not implemented, the scenario of economic strangulation will be applied. The Kremlin hopes that this will cause protests in the country, which will allow open pro-Russian forces to be brought to power.”