Premier's Death Heralds Challenging Days for Georgia

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has ended days of speculation by naming his finance minister to replace for the late prime minister Zurab Zhvania. But many worry that Zhvania’s sudden death has left a gaping hole that will not be easily filled.

The nomination of 40-year-old Zurab Nogaideli appeared designed to calm fears of political instability, following Zhvania’s death in the early hours of February 3 in what officials say was a freak gas accident.

By choosing a longtime associate of Zhvania, Saakashvili showed that he does not plan to let rival camps within the government move in on the dead leader’s political territory, at least in the short term.

The choice of a financial technocrat – Nogaideli also served as finance minister under Saakashvili’s predecessor Eduard Shevardnadze – reflects a will to pursue Zhvania’s legacy of privatisation and economic reform.

According to the constitution, Nogaideli has 10 days to nominate a new cabinet, but Saakashvili’s spokeswoman Alana Gagloyeva said the process will take just two days. The list of ministers must then be approved by parliament, which is controlled by Saakashvili’s National Movement party.

Roman Gotsiridze, who chairs parliament's finance and budgetary committee, said the post of finance minister would be offered to Valery Chechelashvili, currently Georgian ambassador in Russia.

Nogaideli is all but assured of winning approval, but he will have a harder job matching up to his predecessor in terms of experience and political skills. It will also be difficult to persuade a sceptical public that the investigation into the premier’s death is not a cover-up.

It is questionable whether Saakashvili’s choice of a Zhvania associate will be enough to calm the long-running rivalry between the late premier’s allies and those of the president.

Maia Nadiradze, leader of the ruling parliamentary majority, promised, “we will help Zurab Nogaideli to be a good prime minister".

However, last year, Zhvania had to intervene when Saakashvili’s hawkish ally Irakli Okruashvili – now defence minister, but previously prosecutor general and then interior minister – tried to probe the finance ministry’s activities under Nogaideli.

Some believe Nogaideli is no more than a temporary figure.

"Most probably, the post has been given to a member of Zhvania's team for a transition period of a six to eight weeks,” Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia, a prominent political figure who heads the non-government League for the Defence of People, told IWPR. “After that, the president will seize most of the prime minister's powers."

The Tbilisi newspaper Akhali Versia took a similar line, saying that Nogaideli is “doomed”.

"Most likely the cabinet will fulfill a transitional mission," said the newspaper. "If the new prime minister shows Zhvania-like ambitions and tries to get out from under Saakashvili's strong influence, the president himself will dismiss him. Saakashvili doesn't need a strong prime minister who is difficult to control."

The death of Zhvania came exactly two weeks before he would have celebrated his first anniversary as head of government. Richard Lugar, chairman of the United States Senate's foreign affairs committee, who led the American delegation at the mourning ceremony in Tbilisi, said the night the prime minister died was the "darkest" in Georgia's modern history.

“Zurab Zhvania always preferred to light a candle rather than say a curse," the senator told journalists.

Of the trio who led the Rose Revolution which overthrew Shevardnadze in November 2003, Zhvania was regarded as the brains, parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze the public face, and the charismatic Saakashvili the engine.

"It's impossible for now to find a politician of the same stature as Zurab Zhvania," Burjanadze said just before Nogaideli was named.

Giorgi Khaindrava, state minister for conflict resolution, said, "Zhvania's death is a blow to the country's statehood, as the prime minister was one of the pillars. "

A week after the deaths of the prime minister and Raul Usupov, the deputy governor of the Kvemo Kartli region, who died in the same incident, shocked Georgians continue to question whether it was indeed an accident, or an assassination. Many observers, ranging from independent experts and journalists to ordinary citizens, share a common disbelief in the official version of events.

Sarishvili-Chanturia called a press-conference to suggest that, “if Zurab Zhvania was indeed killed, those who killed him should be sought among the authorities”.

“I can't understand why Zurab Zhvania's death was initially declared an accident, or why the Georgian government refuses to have independent experts join the investigation,” said Sarishvili-Chanturia. "Zhvania's death is a big loss for the Georgian authorities. I do not rule out that it may be the start of the decline of Mikheil Saakasvhili's government.”

Investigators say the tragedy took place in a flat Usupov had rented in Saburtalo Street, as carbon monoxide leaked from a poorly-installed gas heater and overcame the two men. Over the last three years, 45 such lethal incidents have been recorded.

However, because of the huge role Zhvania played in the country, this banal explanation seems incredible to much of the population.

"I want to know the truth, as I'm sure my son did not die in that flat," Usupov's father Yashar told the Tbilisi television channel Mze. "I will never know peace until I find out the truth. After I bury my son, I will go to Tbilisi to talk everything over with Zurab Zhvania's family".

Usupov's relatives say he already owned a flat in Tbilisi, that he had lived there with his wife and young son for the past five years, and that he had no need to rent a second apartment in secret. Neighbours in the Varketili district, about 15 kilometres away from Saburtalo St, said they saw him there almost every day.

Tbilisi newspapers claim that the Georgian authorities maintain apartments especially for secret meetings, and that investigators should check to see whether this was one such place.

A former head of the national forensic laboratory Maia Nikoleishvili, has emerged as one of the loudest voices questioning the facts as presented by the authorities. An interview she gave to Mze TV on February 3 stirred up such interest that investigators came and took away the tape of the interview, according to a representative of the television company who asked not to be named.

One of the points made by Nikoleishvili is that interior minister Vano Merabishvili announced that "it was an accident, just a few hours after the prime minister died, and before any investigation started. That statement can be regarded as an attempt to send the investigation off in a particular direction."

Nikoleishvili says that initial report suggested that the carboxyhemoglobin level found in the blood of the two victims was 10 per cent. Several hours later this was upped to 40 per cent, then 60.6 per cent for Zhvania and 73.9 per cent for Usupov. The fatal level is 60 per cent.

In an interview she gave to the Alia newspaper, Nikoleishvili even speculated that, “Zhvania and Usupov could have been poisoned in some other place and then brought to the flat in Saburtalo Street. We still have no answer to the main question: was the location where their bodies were discovered the place where they died?”

Tbilgazi, the capital’s gas distribution company, says a leak from the faulty heater could have put the men to sleep within 10 or 15 minutes.

“But is it possible that Zhvania and Usupov would not have felt something unpleasant?" asked Nikoleishvili asked. “Is it right to think that the men remained silent, that they did not talk to each other, and that one of the two did not feel sick some time earlier than the other?”

Suspicions have been heightened by reports that there was an unusually small number of bodyguards attending the two officials. Saburtalo Street residents saw no escort cars on the night of the tragedy. A rumour that Zhvania himself ordered that only a driver and one bodyguard should stay on is now being checked out by the prosecutor general's office, and the bodyguards are being questioned.

The possibly security lapse came just two days after three policemen were killed by a car bomb 70 kilometres west of Tbilisi. General security levels had been increased as a result of the incident.

Russia has offered technical assistance to the Georgian investigators, but Tbilisi has opted to send test samples to the FBI in the US. Nikoleishvili countered, "From personal experience I can say that I doubt the efficiency of FBI experts."

The Netherlands, of which Saakashvili’s wife Sandra Roelofs is a citizen, sent a thousand roses to Tbilisi for the funeral. Not everyone expects the fragrance to last.

Mikhail Vignansky is the Tbilisi correspondent for the Moscow newspaper Vremya Novostei.