Power Shift Looms in Tense Nineveh

Nineveh politics are expected to dramatically shift following local elections this week, with Arab parties fiercely challenging the volatile province's Kurdish establishment.



There is little doubt in Mosul, the capital of Nineveh, that Sunni Arabs will gain greater representation in the upcoming provincial council polls scheduled for January 31.



According to analysts, Mosul is ripe for change after being led by a Kurdish-dominated provincial council whose opponents say it failed to reflect the area’s diverse population.



Sunni Arabs largely boycotted the last provincial council elections in 2005, leaving the community with little say in local government.



The United States pushed for the upcoming provincial elections in an effort to boost Sunni Arab participation in local politics nationwide.



As the majority in Nineveh, Sunni Arabs are underrepresented in the provincial council.

Kurds are the biggest minority in the region, making up 35 per cent of the population according to their own estimate, less according to the Sunni Arabs.



In the 2005 election, however, the Kurds gained 31 of the 41 seats on the provincial council. They have since controlled local politics and security in the province – a development that prompted Sunni Arabs to mobilise for these elections.



The province, which has been crippled by violence, suffers from poor services and high unemployment, issues that are also expected to drive voters to the polls.



"The Sunnis will actively participate in the upcoming elections because they realise they have lost their rights, the country is in a miserable situation [and] infrastructure is broken down," said Suhaib Abdul-Qadir, a Mosul-based political analyst.



The Kurdish coalition currently "has the upper hand in Nineveh’s provincial council, and I think that this is going to change in the upcoming elections", said Nineveh’s governor Khasro Goran, a Kurd.



Mosul remains one of the most dangerous places in Iraq despite US, Iraqi and Kurdish efforts to quash the Sunni Arab insurgents and al-Qaeda militants who have made the city their base.



Sunni Arabs have accused Kurdish leaders and forces, known as peshmerga, of abuses and discrimination against non-Kurds. They say the Kurdish authorities are seeking to incorporate Nineveh into the neighbouring Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG – a charge the Kurdish leaders deny.



Nineveh is one of Iraq's most diverse provinces and includes Assyrian Christians, Yazidis, Shabaks and other minority groups who have been targeted by Sunni extremists and have also had rocky relations with the KRG. Of the 37 seats in the new Nineveh provincial council, the Assyrians, Yazidis and Shabaks will each receive one seat.



Kurds claim persecution as well. The Kurdistan region’s president, Massoud Barzani, told the Los Angeles Times this month that 2,000 Kurds had been killed in Mosul over the last few years. Sunni Arabs say they have been victims of Kurdish domination of the region. Kurdish leaders have denied this.



"We have not responded [to the killings of Kurds] in the same manner and we have not reacted in any act of vengeance, but of course everything will have its limits," Barzani told the Los Angeles Times.



Kurdish leaders maintain the peshmerga have been a stabilising force in Mosul and note that they came to power democratically. But they also recognise that Sunni Arabs are likely to gain power from the election, and have created a Kurdish-led coalition called the Brotherhood List, which includes some Arab and minority leaders.



Two Sunni Arab-led challengers, Hadba and the Iraqi Islamic Party, are expected to make the biggest gains in Nineveh. Hadba includes minority candidates but is led by ex-Baathists and Arab nationalists, whom Kurds claim are anti-Kurdish. Hadba has accused Kurdish security of harassment and demanded extra protection from the central government at the polls.



Kurdish leaders across Iraq say they are watching the Mosul elections closely. They warn that some lists – such as Hadba – encourage divisiveness and sectarianism.



"Extremist lists will certainly create violence and a sharp reaction," Nineveh governor Khusro Goran said. "We hope that people will vote for neutral lists because extremist coalitions are useless."



Many Nineveh voters are expected to cast their ballots along sectarian and ethnic lines because "they don't know anything about the candidates' qualifications", said Mahmud Abdul-Rahman, a Mosul University professor.



At the same time, some Nineveh voters may also throw out incumbents whom they blame for their woes, according to observers. Incumbents throughout Iraq are facing challenges due to voter discontent with services, corruption and inefficiency in local government.



"Mosul has suffered for five years. The security is weak, and there is an economic crisis and services are lacking," said Abdul-Rahman.



Turnout for Nineveh’s election is expected to be high if there are no major security incidents. While Sunni Arabs will be driven to vote to correct their lack of representation in local government, the prospect of losing ground to resurgent Arabs is set to guarantee high Kurdish participation.



Other minorities will meanwhile be eager to fight for their share of representation in a landscape dominated by Arabs and Kurds. Thousands of Assyrian Christians, who consider Nineveh their homeland, fled the Mosul area earlier this year after several Christians were threatened and murdered.



"I'll support the coalition that best serves Christians, not just a list that addresses my personal issues," said Sami Dankha, a Mosul University professor who is a Christian.



Abdul-Khaliq al-Dabagh, head of the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq's Nineveh office, said a record number of residents had registered to vote in the upcoming polls.



Nineveh residents "are fully convinced that they won't get anything unless they participate in the elections. Nineveh has passed through some difficult times", Dabagh said.