Pakistan Plays Go-Between Between US and Uzbeks

Although officially the talk was of economic cooperation when Pakistani prime minister Shavkat Aziz visited Tashkent last week, NBCentralAsia observers say he was probably on a mediating mission to help restore Uzbekistan’s relations with the United States.



In talks with President Islam Karimov during his three-day visit, the Pakistani prime minister expressed interest in buying gas and electricity from Uzbekistan, and allowing the country access to ports on the Indian Ocean.



Observers in Uzbekistan voiced scepticism about the viability of these arrangements. Economist Dmitry Povarov said Pakistan would find it difficult to access Uzbek electricity given that the transmission lines would have to go through Afghanistan, which remains unstable.



Nor is there much scope for Pakistan to invest in the Uzbek economy, since Russian, Chinese and South Korean firms dominate those areas that are open to external investors.



Thus, it was the political aspects of Aziz’s visit that may carry weight. One Uzbekistan-based political analyst told NBCentralAsia that the prime minister is likely to have been acting as a mediator between Uzbek president Islam Karimov and the Bush administration to improve the fraught bilateral relationship.



After Uzbek government forces opened fire on a peaceful demonstration in Andijan in May 2005, killing several hundred people, Tashkent reacted to criticism from Washington by freezing relations and shutting down the American air base in Uzbekistan.



The analyst believes Uzbekistan is seeking better political and economic relations with a range of Muslim countries which have good ties to Washington. “This indirectly helps the current regime escape from its political isolation,” he said, noting that Tashkent has fostered ties with Kuwait and Egypt as well as Pakistan.



Karimov visited Kuwait in January 2007 and plans to visit Egypt in late March.



Another political expert, who wishes to remain anonymous, says that Karimov must make a stab at repairing relations with the US at this crucial moment in his presidency.



“This is a decisive year for Karimov, what with the upcoming [presidential] election and he needs to enlist Washington’s support or at some kind of backing as soon as possible, since it is unclear whether Moscow will support him during his next term in office,” said the analyst.



Karimov, who has run Uzbekistan since before independence in 1991, faces an election in December.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)