Opposition Digs in Heels Despite Winning Concessions

The refusal of major opposition movements in Kyrgyzstan to join a coalition government is an open rebuff to the president’s attempt at compromise, and perhaps a sign that his opponents are not really clear about what they want, NBCentralAsia political scientists say.



On March 29, the Movement for Reforms and the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan announced they would not be taking part in a coalition government headed by the new prime minister, Almaz Atambaev.



President Kurmanbek Bakiev nominated Atambaev, a moderate opposition figure from the Movement for Reforms, for the post of prime minister on March 29, and this swiftly confirmed by parliament the following day.



In a joint statement issued the same day, the two opposition movements rejected a role in government and announced they would press ahead with planned rallies scheduled for April 9-11, at which they will call for President Bakiev’s resignation.



“We are not going to hold talks with the president. He has to resign – that is the way out of the current situation. We will continue demanding he steps down ahead of time until he actually does so,” Melis Eshimkanov, a member of the United Front, told NBCentralAsia.



Political scientists say the opposition’s refusal to engage in dialogue and participate in a coalition government shows there is no real cohesion to the political demands they are voicing.



One analyst, Alexander Knyazev, warns of dire consequences. “The opposition’s demands and policies lack any cohesion, exactly the same as was the case before [the revolution] in March 2005. This could mean the same situation arises again even if the regime changes,” he said.



NBCentralAsia analyst Tamerlan Ibraimov also thinks the opposition is behaving erratically given that another of their demands – a coalition cabinet – is about to be satisfied, yet they are categorically refusing to join it.



“The opposition should reconsider its radical demands. It should have a cohesive set of demands,” said Ibraimov.



Observers think the situation might improve if Bakiev moves quickly to offer ministerial posts to both the main opposition movements.



“The president says he is ready for talks but he hasn’t made any specific proposals. He has to offer specific options and set a time and place for talks,” said United Front member Omurbek Abdrahmanov.



Some members of the Movement for Reforms say the sparks could be dampened down by setting up a working group to carry out constitutional reform as soon as possible. As member of parliament Kubatbek Baibolov told NBCentralAsia, “A certain consensus could be achieved if the president were to take this step, and the situation might become more stable. We could avoid the rallies scheduled for April 9-11 as well as an early presidential election.”



Baibolov stressed that a coalition government should only be formed after constitutional reform has taken place.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)